Imprisionment and Reoffending

这项研究的目的是提供科学可靠的证据，说明监禁经历与非监禁制裁对再犯的影响。对监禁对再犯影响的实证文献的回顾表明，总的来说，证据指向的是犯罪效应而不是预防效应。然而，这样的回顾也表明，这一结论的证据基础薄弱。现有研究中最重要的统计缺陷是容易受到“选择偏差”的影响。也就是说，即使对可测量的案件和个人特征进行了广泛的统计控制，被送进监狱的人与被定罪但未被监禁的人在与累犯有关的未测量特征上仍可能存在系统差异。为了克服选择问题，我们建议利用随机分配案件给宾夕法尼亚州和哥伦比亚特区刑事法院法官的办法。由于是随机分配，法官之间的案件特征不会有系统的差异。他们被判入狱的可能性的不同将被用作推断监禁对再犯的影响的基础。监禁是一种经济上代价高昂的制裁，对被监禁者的家庭成员，特别是儿童造成经济和心理上的损失，并因其对少数民族成员和社区的不同影响而引起社会正义问题。因此，除了作为一种满足正义需求的工具之外，监狱的正当性必须在很大程度上依赖于它在保护社会秩序方面所显示的效用。因此，了解监禁对再犯的影响应该是制定惩教政策的一个关键考虑因素。

The aim of this research is to provide scientifically sound evidence on the effect of the experience of imprisonment compared to a noncustodial sanction on reoffending. Review of the empirical literature on imprisonment effects on reoffending indicates that, on balance, the evidence points to a criminogenic rather than a preventive effect. However, such a review also indicates that the evidentiary base for this conclusion is weak.The most important statistical weakness of much of the existing research is its vulnerability to "selection bias." That is, even with extensive statistical controls for measured case and person characteristics, persons sent to prison may remain systematically different from those convicted but not imprisoned on unmeasured characteristics related to recidivism. To overcome the selection problem we propose to capitalize on the random assignment of cases to judges in the criminal courts of Pennsylvania and the District of Columbia. Because of random assignment, there will be no systematic difference in case characteristics across judges. Cross-judge variation in their likelihood of imposing a prison sentence will be used as the basis for inferring the effect of incarceration on reoffending. Imprisonment is a sanction that is financially costly, exacts an economic and psychological toll on family members of the incarcerated, particularly children, and raises issues of social justice due to its differential impact on minority members and communities. Thus, beyond being an instrument for meting out just desserts, prison's justification must rest heavily on its demonstrated utility to protect the social order. Understanding the effects of incarceration on reoffending should thus be a key consideration in formulating correctional policy.