EAGER: Collaborative Research: Rapid Production of Geospatial Network Inputs for Spatially Explicit Epidemiological Modeling of COVID-19 in the USA

疾病传播的动态计算机模型被用来理解和预测传染病如何通过宿主人群传播。人口分布、流动性和旅行走廊地图是许多这些模型的关键组成部分。然而，准确确定人口的空间分布是困难的，因为大多数数据来源(例如人口普查)只显示了人们居住的大致位置，而不是他们工作和去的地方。特别是，人口普查数据还以一种仅在人口稠密的城市地区提供精细空间细节的方式进行汇总。在郊区和农村地区，人口普查地图只提供每个人口普查单位(例如美国的一个县)居住的总人数，但不显示人们生活和工作的地方。这项研究将把城市、城镇和出行走廊夜间光线的详细卫星图像与人口普查和人口流动数据融合在一起，生成更详细的人口地图，供流行病学家用来更准确地模拟新冠肺炎等传染病的传播。拟议的合作将把地球空间动力学和遥感与疾病生态学和流行病学的专业知识结合起来，以产生具有推动这两个领域的潜力的跨越边界的科学。此外，拟议的项目将支持两名早期职业科学家以及本科生参与研究。当飞机和车辆旅行显著减少时，人口流动和空间连通性的准确性和细节在模拟流行病传播方面变得更加重要。通过对地理空间数据(来自遥感夜光的住区和基础设施密度以及来自人口普查的人口密度)的共同分析得出的空间网络可以提供比用于汇总和分析健康数据的行政单位(例如县)更准确的空间域。此外，这些空间网络的结构和连通性可以用来量化影响疾病传播的网络结构的基本参数。这项研究将开发一套逐步完善的网络地图，用于流行病学模型。由地球科学家、疾病生态学家和流行病学家组成的研究小组将开发一种标准化的方案，其中包括分析程序和工具，用于制作这些地图，以适应对美国SARS-CoV-2感染的定量时空分析，包括对纽约和洛杉矶大都会地区的详细分析。人口中心之间的网络流动参数将使用基于代理的建模进行估计，建立一个完整的地理空间网络，该网络包括城市内部的人口和流动约束以及城市之间的人口流动。人口和网络流量估计将直接输入到空间显式的新冠肺炎传播模型中，并将被抽象为可以简化未来流行病学模型的边界条件。这一快速奖项是由环境生物学部门传染病生态学和进化计划利用冠状病毒援助、救济和经济安全(CARE)法案的资金颁发的。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Dynamical computer models of disease transmission are used to understand and predict how infectious diseases spread through host populations. Maps of population distribution, mobility, and travel corridors are critical components of many of these models. However, accurately determining the spatial distribution of people is difficult because most sources of data (e.g., census) indicate only approximately where people reside, rather than where they work and go. Census data, in particular, are also aggregated in a way that provides fine spatial detail only in densely populated urban areas. In suburban and rural areas, census maps provide only the total number of people living in each census unit (e.g., a U.S. county), but do not show where people live and work. This research will fuse detailed satellite images of night light emitted from cities, towns and travel corridors with census counts and mobility data to produce more detailed population maps for epidemiologists to use to more accurately simulate the transmission of communicable diseases like COVID-19. The proposed collaboration will bring together expertise from geospatial dynamics and remote sensing with disease ecology and epidemiology to produce boundary spanning science with potential to advance both fields. Further, the proposed project will support two early career scientists as well as undergraduate student involvement in research.When air and vehicle travel are significantly reduced, the accuracy and detail of population movement and spatial connectedness assumes greater importance for modeling epidemic spread. Spatial networks derived from co-analysis of geospatial data (settlement and infrastructure density from remotely sensed night light and population density from census enumerations) can provide more accurate spatial domains than the administrative units (e.g., counties) used to aggregate and analyze health data. In addition, the structure and connectivity of these spatial networks can be used to quantify fundamental parameters of network structure that influence disease spread. This research will develop a progressively refined suite of network maps for use with epidemiological models. The research team, composed of geoscientists, disease ecologists and epidemiologists will develop a standardized protocol with analytic procedures and tools for production of these maps structured so as to be suited for quantitative spatiotemporal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the U.S., including detailed analyses of the New York and Los Angeles metro areas. Network flow parameters among population centers will be estimated using agent-based modeling, establishing a complete geospatial network consisting of population and mobility constraints within cities, and population fluxes among cities. Population and network flow estimates will be input directly into spatially explicit COVID-19 transmission models, and will be abstracted into boundary conditions that can streamline future epidemiological models. This RAPID award is made by the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease Program in the Division of Environmental Biology, using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.