Analytical methods for estimating the joint climatological-social drivers of water quality and supply in contrasting tropical zones: Ecuador and China

估算对比热带地区水质和供应的气候-社会联合驱动因素的分析方法：厄瓜多尔和中国

• 批准号: 1646708
• 负责人: Justin Remais
• 金额: $ 191.05万
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1646708&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Analytical; methods; estimating; joint; climatological

More than 2 billion people in tropical and subtropical regions have limited access to clean water and sanitation services, and the fate and transport of pathogens in surface waters are known to be sensitive to climate change in these settings. This project addresses critical questions in waterborne disease transmission in a changing and variable climate: How can we make reliable predictions about the effects of future environmental change on water quality and specifically on waterborne pathogens? How can we direct social-economic decision-making to counteract potential increased water quality problems under future climate conditions? This project will develop and test methods for conceptualizing, quantifying and predicting the effects of multiple climatological drivers on water quantity and pathogen fate and transport using well studied test sites in northern Ecuador and western China. The team will collaborate with partners at the Universidad San Francisco de Quito and Sichuan University, leverage current NIH/NIAID projects in the regions, host workshops at each site, and facilitate interaction between US students and in-country collaborators. The objective of this project is to systematically investigate the impact of climate variability and change on water quantity and quality in tropical and subtropical zones. The central hypotheses are that 1) climate change can affect water quality by altering the dynamics of surface water flows and the fate and transport of pathogens in the water column, and that 2) both management decisions and forms of social organization can limit or exacerbate climate's influence. This project will develop and test methods for conceptualizing, quantifying and predicting the effects of multiple climatological drivers on water quantity and quality, using as test sites well-studied regions in northern Ecuador and western China where extensive data are available. The project activities will develop empirical and theoretical foundations for the modeling and prediction of coupled hydrological-microbiological systems, and have the potential to considerably improve understanding of how environmental change can alter microbiological water quality at multiple scales. The effects of changing climate on key pathways that determine water quality will be explored, including climate-mediated changes in hydrological dynamics; climate-mediated effects on conditions within the water column (e.g., micro-environmental temperature); and the effects of management decisions (e.g., agricultural practices, sanitation provision) and social processes (e.g., social stratification, migration), which can limit or exacerbate climate-related changes in water quality.

热带和亚热带地区有20多亿人获得清洁水和卫生服务的机会有限，在这些环境中，地表水中病原体的命运和运输已知对气候变化很敏感。该项目解决了在不断变化和多变的气候中水媒疾病传播的关键问题：我们如何能够可靠地预测未来环境变化对水质的影响，特别是对水媒病原体的影响？我们如何指导社会经济决策，以应对未来气候条件下可能增加的水质问题？该项目将在厄瓜多尔北部和中国西部开发和测试多种气候驱动因素对水量、病原体命运和运输的影响的概念化、量化和预测方法。该团队将与基多旧金山大学和四川大学的合作伙伴合作，利用该地区目前的NIH/NIAID项目，在每个地点举办研讨会，并促进美国学生与国内合作者之间的互动。该项目的目的是系统地调查气候变率和变化对热带和亚热带地区水量和水质的影响。主要假设是：1)气候变化可以通过改变地表水流动的动态以及水柱中病原体的命运和运输来影响水质；2)管理决策和社会组织形式都可以限制或加剧气候的影响。该项目将开发和测试概念化、量化和预测多种气候驱动因素对水量和水质影响的方法，并将厄瓜多尔北部和中国西部研究充分、数据丰富的地区作为试验点。该项目活动将为水文-微生物耦合系统的建模和预测发展经验和理论基础，并有可能大大提高对环境变化如何在多个尺度上改变微生物水质的理解。将探讨气候变化对决定水质的关键途径的影响，包括水文动力学中气候介导的变化；气候对水柱内条件的影响（如微环境温度）；管理决策（如农业实践、卫生设施提供）和社会进程（如社会分层、移徙）的影响，它们可以限制或加剧与气候有关的水质变化。