Collaborative Research: Complex Effects of Telecoupled Activities in the Changing Environment of the Arctic

北极社区和生态系统正在发生巨大变化，这不仅是气候变化的结果，也是经济全球化和北极自然资源开发力度加大的结果。虽然这些经济和气候力量经常被分开研究，但它们可能相互作用，对生态系统和北极人类社区的福祉产生潜在的复杂影响。作为减轻威胁和促进人类福祉的重要一步，该研究项目旨在了解阿拉斯加以外的力量，如海上交通、旅游和自然资源开采，如何结合起来影响海洋生态系统和沿海人类社区。为了研究多个遥远的驱动因素对北极系统的相互作用，研究人员将开发一个以阿拉斯加白令海峡地区为重点的动态系统模型。作为从太平洋到北极的唯一海洋入口，白令海峡是洄游海洋野生动物和海洋船只交通的重要通道，使其成为该项目理想的研究区域。该模型将基于远耦合的框架，该框架考察了长距离的社会经济和环境相互作用。跨学科团队将应用该模型来解决三个重要且相互关联的目标：(1)了解远耦合如何影响对生存经济和文化至关重要的海洋哺乳动物物种的栖息地；(2)确定远耦合对社区经济和福祉的影响；(3)开发不同的远耦合引起的变化情景并评估其对人类社区和海洋哺乳动物栖息地的潜在影响。研究人员和社区伙伴将合作将当地知识纳入该模型，并提高其反映实地经验的能力，以及记录问题和当地知识的能力。此外，该小组将培训四名初级跨学科系统科学家，并将向各利益攸关方广泛传播研究成果，以帮助北极人类和自然系统的可持续性。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Arctic communities and ecosystems are experiencing dramatic changes, not just from a changing climate, but also from economic globalization and increased development of Arctic natural resources. Although these economic and climate forces are often studied separately, they may interact, generating potentially complex effects on ecosystems and the wellbeing of Arctic human communities. As an essential step toward mitigating threats and promoting human wellbeing, this research project seeks to understand how forces from outside Alaska, such as marine traffic, tourism, and natural resource extraction, combine to affect marine ecosystems and coastal human communities. To examine the interactive effects of multiple distant drivers on Arctic systems, the researchers will develop a dynamic systems model focusing on the Bering Strait region of Alaska. As the only marine access point to the Arctic from the Pacific Ocean, the Bering Strait represents a critical corridor for both migratory marine wildlife and marine vessel traffic, making it an ideal study region for this project. The model will be based on the framework of telecoupling, which examines socioeconomic and environmental interactions across long distances. The interdisciplinary team will apply this model to address three important and interrelated objectives: (1) understand how telecouplings influence the habitat of marine mammal species crucial to subsistence economies and cultures, (2) determine the effects of telecouplings on community economies and wellbeing, and (3) develop different telecoupling-induced change scenarios and assess their potential effects on human communities and marine mammal habitats. Researchers and community partners will collaborate to incorporate local knowledge into the model and improve its ability to reflect on-the-ground experiences, as well as document concerns and local knowledge. Furthermore, the team will train four junior interdisciplinary systems scientists, and will disseminate research results widely to various stakeholders to help with the sustainability of Arctic human and natural systems.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.