Complex Effects of Climate Change on Nature Reserve Networks at Macroscales

自然保护区等保护区一直是生物多样性保护的重要基石。然而，人类活动损害了许多自然保护区的保护目标，气候变化对它们的长期生存能力和成功构成了额外的威胁。虽然有研究分析了气候变化对自然保护区保护效果的影响，但大多数研究集中在局部区域的单个自然保护区。在广泛的地理区域内，评估自然保护区网络内和网络间物种分布的变化，并分析气候变化对动植物物种长期生存的影响。实现这一目标的一个特殊环境是全球重要的森林宏观系统，这是世界著名的濒危大熊猫的历史地理范围（横跨中国19个省，220万平方公里）。在这个庞大的宏观系统中，目前有63个熊猫保护区和1000多个其他用途的保护区，它们共同构成了一个保护区元网络（网络中的网络）。利用最先进的气候变化预测、遥感技术、元不确定性分析和物种分布模型，一个多学科和国际研究团队将分析气候变化对保护区元网络保护有效性的影响，以及大熊猫和约30种竹子（占其饮食的99%）的当前和未来地理分布。该项目将带来重大的变革成果，例如在宏观尺度上测试和扩展两个基本理论（生态位理论和连通性理论）。它还将产生强大而持久的广泛影响。通过与利益相关者的积极接触，研究小组将利用项目成果制定和评估在气候变化背景下具有全球重要性的有效和高效的保护战略。改进一种众所周知的极具魅力的濒危物种的保护战略，将有助于提高公众对气候变化对生物多样性的潜在影响的认识，并鼓励公众参与减缓和适应气候变化。通过策略性的沟通和实践研讨会，研究结果和方法将广泛传播，以激励其他人分析气候变化对世界各地其他物种和其他自然保护区网络的影响。此外，该项目将培养本科生和研究生以及博士后学者，他们将获得广泛而深入的知识，并学习重要的技能，成为未来有远见的领导者和全球参与的研究人员，他们可以创造性地应对未来生物多样性研究和保护的挑战。

Protected areas such as nature reserves have been a major cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. However, human activities have compromised conservation goals in many nature reserves, and climate change poses additional threats to their long-term viability and success. Although some studies have analyzed climate change impacts on the conservation effectiveness of nature reserves, most have focused on individual nature reserves in localized regions. Funding is provided to assess the changes in species distribution within and across networks of nature reserves in broad geographic regions, and to analyze the effects of climate change on the long-term survival of plant and animal species. An exceptional setting for achieving the objectives is the globally important forested macrosystem that is the historical geographic range of the world-famous endangered giant panda (2.2 million km2 across 19 provinces of China). Across this vast macrosystem there are currently 63 panda reserves and over 1,000 reserves for other purposes, which together constitute a reserve meta-network (network of networks). Using state-of-the-art climate change projections, remote sensing techniques, meta-uncertainty analyses, and species distribution models, a multi-disciplinary and international team of researchers will analyze climate change impacts on conservation effectiveness of this meta-network of reserves as well as current and future geographic distribution of the panda and around 30 bamboo species that comprise 99% of its diet. This project will lead to transformative and significant outcomes, such as testing and extending two fundamental theories (niche theory and connectivity theory) at macroscales. It will also generate powerful and lasting broader impacts. Through active engagement with stakeholders, the research team will use project results to develop and evaluate effective and efficient conservation strategies of global importance in the context of climate change. Improving conservation strategies for a well-known charismatic endangered species will help to increase the public awareness of the potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, and encourage public engagement on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Through strategic communication and hands-on workshops, the results and methods will be widely disseminated to inspire others to analyze the impacts of climate change on other species and other nature reserve networks around the world. Furthermore, the project will train undergraduate and graduate students as well as post-doctoral scholars, who will gain broad and deep knowledge and learn important skills to become future visionary leaders and globally-engaged researchers who can creatively address future challenges to biodiversity research and conservation.