BE/CNH: Complex Interactions Among Policies, People, and Panda Habitat in the Wolong Nature Reserve Landscape

人类活动被广泛认为是世界各地（包括许多自然保护区）景观迅速变化和生物多样性丧失背后的主要力量。许多研究发现，政府政策可以显著地影响人类活动，但这些研究大多集中在一次的单一政策上，而忽略了各种政策之间的相互作用。多种政策对生物多样性（如野生动物栖息地）时空动态的影响之间的复杂相互作用尚不清楚。研究生物多样性保护政策之间的相互关系是十分重要和紧迫的，因为多种政策往往同时实施。这些政策可能是非线性互补或适得其反。研究这种相互作用的一个极好的地点是中国西南部四川省卧龙自然保护区。该保护区占地20万公顷，是世界著名的濒危物种大熊猫和数千种其他动植物的最大家园之一。保护区内还有4000多名当地居民和各种各样的人类活动，如农业和薪柴收集。自1975年保护区建立以来，人类数量增加了70%以上。这种快速增长的人口在大熊猫栖息地的退化中扮演着一个新的和独特的角色。为了防止大熊猫栖息地的进一步退化和促进栖息地的恢复，中国政府在保护区内实施了三个保护政策：生态水电站工程（消除薪柴消耗）、天然林保护工程（防止森林非法采伐）和退耕还林工程（退耕还林）。然而，这些政策对当地居民和大熊猫栖息地的互动影响尚不确定。本研究的目的是：(1)评估三项政策与当地居民之间的相互作用；(2)评价当地居民与大熊猫栖息地的相互关系；（三）审查修改和完善政策的必要性和可行性；(4)建立政策、人与大熊猫栖息地跨时空的多尺度互动模型。本研究使用的方法包括实地观察、与利益相关者面对面访谈、地理信息系统、遥感、全球定位系统、统计工具、系统建模和仿真以及先进的计算机可视化技术。除了解决许多基本的生态和社会经济问题外，该研究还将与从小学到研究生的学生教育紧密结合，并与从地方到国际层面的各种利益相关者进行接触。该项目将对生物复杂性理论、方法和应用产生重大影响。在理论方面，本项目将在多个时空尺度上揭示多种政策、人类和野生动物栖息地之间的复杂模式和相互关联的过程（如非线性、阈值、反馈、不确定性）。在研究方法上，本研究将采取系统的方法，整合多学科的方法和先进的技术来调查研究系统的复杂性。在应用方面，该项目将为保护卧龙大熊猫栖息地提供实用信息，并将为设计和改进旨在平衡世界上人口最多的国家生物多样性保护和经济发展需求的政策提供有用的见解。由于人类压力不断升级，人类与自然的相互作用日益复杂，这些发现也将引起世界许多其他地区的普遍兴趣。该项目得到了2002年度环境生物复杂性特别竞赛的支持，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合动力学。

Human activities are widely recognized as a major force behind rapid landscape changes and loss of biodiversity around the world, including those in numerous nature reserves. Many studies have found that government policies can significantly shape human activities, but most of those studies have focused on a single policy at a time and ignored the interactive effects among various policies. Little is known about the complex interactions among the effects of multiple policies on the spatial-temporal dynamics of biodiversity such as wildlife habitat. Studying the interrelationships of various policies for biodiversity conservation is critical and urgent because multiple policies often are implemented simultaneously. These policies may be nonlinearly complementary or counterproductive. An excellent site for studying such interactions is Wolong Nature Reserve in Sichuan Province in southwestern China. The reserve, which is 200,000 hectares in size, is one of the largest homes to world-famous endangered giant pandas and several thousand other animal and plant species. There are also more than 4,000 local residents and a variety of human activities in the reserve, such as farming and fuelwood collection. Since the establishment of the reserve in 1975, human population size has increased by more than 70 percent. This rapidly increasing human population plays a novel and unique role in degrading the pandas' habitat. To prevent further degradation of panda habitat and promote habitat restoration, the Chinese government is implementing three conservation policies in the reserve: an eco-hydropower plant program (to eliminate fuelwood consumption), a natural forest conservation program (to prevent illegal forest harvesting), and a grain-to-green program (to return cropland to forest). The interactive effects of these policies on local people and panda habitat are uncertain, however. The objectives of this research project are (1) to assess the interactions among the three policies and local residents; (2) to evaluate the interrelationships between local residents and panda habitat; (3) to examine the need for and feasibility of policy modification and improvement; and (4) to model and simulate multi-scale interactions among policies, people, and panda habitat across space and time. The methods to be used in this study include field observations, face-to-face interviews with stakeholders, geographical information systems, remote sensing, global positioning systems, statistical tools, systems modeling and simulation, and advanced computer visualization techniques. In addition to addressing many fundamental ecological and socioeconomic questions, the research will be tightly integrated with the education of students from elementary school to graduate school as well as outreach to various stakeholders from local to international levels. The project will have significant implications for biocomplexity theory, methodology, and application. In terms of theory, this project will shed light on complex patterns and interrelated processes (e.g., nonlinearity, thresholds, feedback, uncertainty) among multiple policies, humans, and wildlife habitat at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Regarding methodology, the research will take a systems approach by integrating multidisciplinary methods and advanced technologies to investigate the complexity of the study system. With respect to application, the project will provide practical information for conserving panda habitat in Wolong, and it will provide useful insights for designing and improving policies that attempt to balance the needs of biodiversity conservation and economic development in the world's most populous nation. The findings also will be of general interest to many other parts of the world because of escalating human pressures and increasingly complicated human-nature interactions. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2002 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.