Collaborative Research: Implications of Solar Radiation Management for Strategic Behavior and Climate Governance

鉴于最近的科学报告警告称，如果不迅速削减温室气体排放，将会对全球产生严重影响，一些国家或其他实体可能倾向于采取不需要国际合作的技术气候管理战略。在各种潜在的“地球工程”技术中，太阳辐射管理(SRM)正在成为领先的候选技术。SRM寻求增加反射回太空的太阳光数量，以抵消温室气体排放的吸热效应。一种方法是在平流层广泛释放反射粒子，预计这种方法特别便宜，而且见效快。这意味着，一个特别容易受到气候变化影响的国家可能会决定部署可再生能源管理，即使它可能对其他国家有害。这一研究项目旨在调查潜在的可获得性和地球工程的实施可能如何影响未来的气候行动和影响。研究小组还探讨了替代国际治理框架可如何促进战略，从而带来最大的全球利益。随着气候变化变得更加紧迫，各国努力达成合作解决方案，该项目通过考虑决策的潜在演变，改进了现有的气候行动理论和模型。这一理论进步得到了行为实验室实验和计算机模型模拟的加强。通过提供对地球工程更广泛的影响的洞察，这项研究是及时的和具有社会意义的。具体地说，研究人员通过三个主要机制扩大了这项工作的影响：(I)国内和国际气候政策制定者的直接参与，以增进对SRM影响的相互理解；(Ii)翻译和传播我们的建模和实验工具和结果，将其应用于科学和技术政策中的其他问题；(Iii)为不同的学生提供与社会相关的经验，以培养他们与决策者沟通的能力。然而，应对气候变化的全球集体行动是一项挑战，因为每个潜在的参与者都有搭便车的动机。这导致整体行动不足--即所谓的“公地悲剧”。然而，太阳辐射管理(SRM)作为一种非合作的气候变化管理战略的潜力可能会改变这种情况。特别是，向平流层注入反射粒子可能是一种足够便宜和容易的冷却地球的方法，可以由一个国家可行地实施。然而，战略风险管理是一个不完美的解决方案，因为它是短暂的，而且有自己的风险和治理挑战。在这个项目中，我们试图了解可持续发展战略管理对未来气候管理战略的潜在影响、合作行动的前景以及国际治理的作用。关键的研究问题包括：在什么条件下，SRM将鼓励搭便车、免费驾驶或合作？各国将保留战略调整机制作为最后手段，还是在必要之前实施？可持续发展管理在包括缓解和适应在内的气候管理组合中可以发挥什么作用？各国对战略武器管理偏好的异质性将如何影响合作潜力？国际机构如何在激励合作的同时遏制战略调整机制创造的任何自由驱动的动力？本项目通过将理论、模型模拟和实验相结合来解决这些和其他研究问题，以追求三个具体目标：1.建立和分析当一些国家有能力实施可持续发展管理时国际气候合作动态的博弈论模型。2.设计并实现了代表SRM关键特性的实验游戏，以验证理论模型与实际行为的一致性，并为基于代理的仿真的发展提供参考。3.模拟和实地测试国际治理和机构设计的替代框架，以促进具有最大社会效益的气候战略。虽然我们项目的动机是SRM作为气候变化的非合作、短期解决方案的前景，但我们项目的见解可能适用于任何情况，在这种情况下，一种高风险的技术被呈现为传统上通过集体行动解决的问题的快速解决方案。最后，项目团队致力于将理论、模型和实验框架转移到其他环境中。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

With recent scientific reports warning of serious global impacts if greenhouse gas emissions are not quickly curtailed, some nations or other entities may be inclined to pursue a technological climate management strategy that does not require international cooperation. Solar radiation management (SRM) is emerging as the leading candidate from among a variety of potential “geoengineering” technologies. SRM seeks to increase the amount of sunlight reflected back into space to offset the heat-trapping effects of GHG emissions. One approach, which involves widespread release of reflective particles in the stratosphere, is expected to be especially cheap and fast‐acting. This means that a single nation that is especially vulnerable to climate change may decide to deploy SRM, even if it is potentially detrimental to other nations. This research project is designed to investigate how the potential availability and implementation of geoengineering is likely to impact future climate action and impacts. The research team also explores the ways in which alternative international governance frameworks might promote strategies that lead to the greatest global benefit. The project advances existing theory and models of climate action by considering the potential evolution of decision making as climate change becomes more urgent and nations struggle to reach a cooperative solution. This theoretical advancement is reinforced by behavioral laboratory experiments as well as computer model simulations. By providing insight into the wider ramifications of geoengineering, The research is timely and socially relevant. Specifically, the researchers broaden the impact of the work via three main mechanisms: (i) Direct engagement of domestic and international climate policymakers, to improve mutual understanding of the implications of SRM; (ii) Translation and dissemination of our modeling and experimental tools and results for application to other problems in science and technology policy; (iii) Provision of socially relevant experiences for diverse students that develop their capacity to communicate with decision makers.Climate change is a typical public goods problem, requiring collective action to successfully co-manage. Global collective action on climate change is a challenge, however, as each potential actor has an incentive to “free‐ride” on the actions of others. This leads to insufficient overall action – the so‐called “tragedy of the commons.” This situation may be transformed, however, by the potential of solar radiation management (SRM) as a non‐cooperative climate change management strategy. In particular, the injection of reflective particles into the stratosphere may be a sufficiently cheap and easy means of cooling the earth to be feasibly implemented by a single nation. However, SRM is an imperfect solution as it is short‐lived and has its own risks and governance challenges. In this project, we seek to understand the potential impacts of SRM on future climate management strategy, the prospects of cooperative action, and the role of international governance. Key research questions include: Under what conditions will SRM encourage free‐riding, free‐driving, or cooperation? Will nations reserve SRM as a last resort, or implement it before it is necessary? What role can SRM play in a climate management portfolio that includes mitigation and adaptation? How will heterogeneity among nations in their preference for SRM impact the potential for cooperation? How can international institutions rein in any free‐driver impetus created by SRM while incentivizing cooperation? This project addresses these and other research questions by connecting theory, model simulation, and experiment in pursuit of three specific aims: 1. Develop and analyze a game theoretic model of the dynamics of international climate cooperation when some nations have the ability to implement SRM. 2. Design and implement experimental games that represent the key features of SRM to test the theoretic model against actual behavior and to inform development of an agent‐based simulation. 3. Simulate and field test alternativeframeworks for international governance and institutional design that promote climate strategies with the greatest social benefit. While our project is motivated by the prospect of SRM as a non‐cooperative, short‐term solution to climate change, insights from our project are potentially applicable to any situation in which a risky technology is being presented as a quick fix for problems traditionally addressed through collective action. Finally, the project team addresses opportunities for transferring the theory, modelling, and experimental rameworks to other settings.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.