Collaborative Research: Anthropogenic water management, Climate Change, and Environmental Sustainability in the Southwestern US (ACCESS)

由于供应的减少和需求的上升，人们越来越担心美国西南部的水安全。该地区的水文学正在发生变化，可能会严重破坏供水、农业生产、发电和依赖河流的生态系统。尤其令人担忧的是科罗拉多河流量的下降，科罗拉多河是西南部七个州4000多万人的命脉。频繁和长期的干旱使科罗拉多河的水库水位降至创纪录低点，这引发了人们对如果目前的趋势继续下去将出现水危机的担忧。该项目研究在保持环境流量要求的同时，能否在预测的气候和当前水管理实践下满足美国西南部未来的水需求，如果不能，是否有实现可持续发展的替代方法。该项目直接让区域利益攸关方参与共同制定研究的关键方面，并确保对改进水资源管理具有最大价值的成果。它还为K-12和本科生提供了关于国家最紧迫的水资源可持续发展问题之一的机会。该项目使用最先进的水文模拟系统提供的高分辨率长期水文模拟，系统地研究气候变化、未来需求和水管理(例如，水库运行、地下水使用和流域外调水)在缓解气候影响方面的作用之间的复杂相互作用。具体项目目标是：(1)量化未来水供应和需求的变化，并研究其时空趋势和变化；(2)研究地表水库和地下水储存的变化，量化与未来干旱加剧有关的储存枯竭风险；(3)通过考虑相互竞争的部门间用水和环境流量需求之间的权衡，与区域利益攸关方共同制定潜在的可持续性途径，并在一系列气候变化和社会经济增长情景下对这些途径进行评估。通过考虑各种气候变化和水使用情景，结合利益相关者知情的管理选项，该项目全面审查了美国西南部水资源可持续发展的各种可能途径。该项目开发的综合建模框架将在模拟高度缺水地区的自然-人类耦合系统的能力方面取得重大进展。项目成果将用于向水资源管理提供信息，并就气候变化下日益严重的水资源短缺问题对K-12和大学生进行教育。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

There have been growing concerns about water security in the southwestern US because of dwindling supplies and rising demands. The hydrology of the region is changing in ways that could critically undermine water supplies, agricultural production, power generation, and river-dependent ecosystems. Of particular concern is the declining flows in the Colorado River, a lifeblood for over 40 million people in seven southwestern states. Frequent and prolonged droughts have brought reservoir water levels in the Colorado River to record lows, raising concerns about a water crisis if current trends continue. This project examines whether future water demands in the southwestern US can be met under projected climate and current water management practices while maintaining environmental flow requirements, and if not, whether there are alternative approaches to achieving sustainability. The project directly engages regional stakeholders for participation in co-producing key aspects of the research and ensuring deliverables that are of the greatest value for improved water resource management. It also provides exposure to K-12 and undergraduate students regarding one of the nation’s most pressing water resource sustainability issues. The project uses high-resolution, long-term hydrologic simulations from a state-of-the-art hydrological modeling system to systematically examine the complex interplay between decreased water supplies under climate change, future demands, and the role of water management (e.g., reservoir operation, groundwater use, and out of basin water transfer) in mitigating climate impacts. The specific project objectives are to (1) quantify the future changes in water supplies and demands and examine their spatio-temporal trends and variabilities, (2) examine the changes in surface reservoir and groundwater storages, and quantify risks of storage depletion associated with intensified future droughts, and (3) co-develop potential sustainability pathways with regional stakeholders by considering tradeoffs between competing inter-sectoral water use and environmental flow requirements, and evaluate these pathways under a range of climate change and socio-economic growth scenarios. By considering various climate change and water use scenarios, combined with stakeholder-informed management options, the project holistically examines various possible pathways for water resource sustainability in the southwestern US. The integrated modeling framework developed in this project will provide major advances in the ability to simulate coupled natural-human systems in highly water-scarce regions. Project outcomes will be used in informing water resource management and educating K-12 and college students on growing water scarcity issues under climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.