Probabilistic decision making in children II

本研究项目调查儿童是如何做出概率决策的。我们可以证明，5到6岁的孩子已经有能力在复杂的环境中整合多种信息，并进行加权运算。这些发现支持连接主义的决策制定模型，假设整合是一个基本的自动过程。然而，儿童直到9到10岁才会系统地在他们的决定中使用概率。概率忽视在6岁儿童中占主导地位，只有约三分之一的9至10岁儿童存在这种障碍。在有限理性方法的保护伞下，我们努力确定环境机制，促进儿童在他们的决定中直观地使用概率。具体地说，我们考虑了信息的呈现、任务结构中的自主性和建议给出的形式等因素。我们期望对减少儿童忽视概率的机制有新的见解。这些见解应该有助于我们设计环境，使儿童能够更有效地参与结果主义决策。

This research project investigates how children make probabilistic decisions. We could show that 5- to 6-year-olds are already capable of integrating multiple information in complex environments and of performing weighting operations. These findings support connectionist models of decision making assuming that integration is a fundamental automatic process. However, children do not systematically utilize probabilities in their decisions until the age of 9 to 10 years. Probability neglect is dominant in 6-year-olds and is hurdled by only about one-third of the 9- to 10-year-olds. Under the umbrella of the bounded-rationality approach, we strive for identifying environmental mechanisms promoting children to intuitively use probabilities in their decisions. Specifically, we consider factors such as the presentation of information, self-determination in task-structuring and the format of advice giving. We expect to achieve novel insights into the mechanisms responsible for decreasing probability neglect in children. These insights should help us in designing environments so that children can participate more efficiently in consequentialist decisions.