Large-Scale CoPe: The Cascadia Coastlines and People Hazards Research Hub

为了响应太平洋西北沿海社区的直接呼吁，“大学，政府机构，非政府组织和其他机构之间的协调研究议程”，以帮助他们实现复原力，卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民灾害研究中心（卡斯卡迪亚COPes枢纽）将提供信息，并实现综合灾害评估，缓解和适应，包括全面规划，政策制定，和工程-通过与社区合作有针对性的科学进步。太平洋西北海岸线处于卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带（CSZ）的巨大俯冲地震的风险中，该俯冲带从加州的门多西诺角延伸超过1000公里，通过俄勒冈州和华盛顿到加拿大的温哥华岛。卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民面临着CSZ事件造成的剧烈震动、下沉和海啸淹没，气候驱动的大气河流加剧了山体滑坡和侵蚀风险，改变了风暴模式和海平面上升，以及萨利希海的地壳断层。卡斯卡迪亚沿海社区也有丰富多样的文化，社会和治理历史，传统和地方生态知识（TEK/LEK），以及与其沿海位置和生态系统相关的身份，价值观和经济。这些独特的功能定位卡斯卡迪亚CoPes枢纽，以改变对急性和慢性海岸变化的时间节奏和相互作用的理解。Cascadia CoPes中心将通过社区参与和共同制作，并通过培训新一代的沿海灾害科学家和领导人来提高沿海社区的适应能力，这些科学家和领导人来自该地区目前代表性不足的社区。由于构造和气候驱动的沿海灾害密不可分，Cascadia为研究从几分钟到几千年的当地沿海变化提供了一个天然实验室，反映了慢性和急性危害的影响的复杂性和地方性层次。例如，长期相对海平面上升（RSLR）在这里是由构造运动，与最高的西海岸RSLR率发现在卡斯卡迪亚的南端，而RSLR是静音沿着奥林匹克半岛在北部的隆起的一些延伸。Cascadia CoPes中心旨在测试两个首要假设：（1）融合的沿海灾害科学的根本进步将改变对沿海社区面临的风险的理解，（2）推进灾害评估和缓解的包容性，共同制作的方法将提高沿海社区的适应能力，并扩大参与实现公平和公正的减少灾害风险。该项目将与代表卡斯卡迪亚海岸线和人民多样性的合作机构一起：（a）确定地震、海啸、山崩和陆地变化的可能来源，整合新的观测结果，并根据新的概率性构造多灾害风险模型开发耦合事件模拟;（B）评估气候驱动的河流-沿海复合洪灾，以及这些洪灾如何驱动沿海地貌变化和生态系统，量化在当前和未来条件下遭受沿海灾害的概率;（d）确定和测试多种用途和以资产为重点的适应战略，以便在纳入技术、环境和能源知识的进程中减少灾害风险，（e）研究沿海治理结构对灾害复原力和科学知情的灾害应对的包容性，以及（f）探索（a-e）之间的概念联系和沟通挑战。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In response to the direct call by Pacific Northwest coastal communities for “a coordinated research agenda among universities, governmental agencies, NGOs, and others” to help them achieve resilience, the Cascadia Coastlines and Peoples Hazards Research Hub (Cascadia CoPes hub) will inform and enable integrated hazard assessment, mitigation, and adaptation—including comprehensive planning, policy making, and engineering—through targeted scientific advances in collaboration with communities. Pacific Northwest coastlines are at risk of great subduction earthquakes from the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), which extends more than 1000 km from Cape Mendocino in California through Oregon and Washington to Vancouver Island, Canada. Cascadia coastlines and peoples face acute shaking, subsidence, and tsunami inundation from a CSZ event, landslide and erosion risks aggravated by climate-driven intensifying atmospheric rivers, changing storminess patterns and sea level rise, as well as crustal faulting in the Salish Sea. Cascadia coastal communities also have rich and diverse cultural, social and governance histories, traditional and local ecological knowledge (TEK/LEK), and identities, values, and economies tied to their coastal locations and ecosystems. These distinguishing features position the Cascadia CoPes hub to transform understanding of the temporal pacing and interactions of acute and chronic coastal changes. The Cascadia CoPes hub will increase coastal community adaptive capacity, through community engagement and co-production, and by training a new generation of coastal hazards scientists and leaders from currently underrepresented communities in the region.With inextricably linked tectonic and climate-driven coastal hazards, Cascadia provides a natural laboratory for the study of local coastal changes spanning time scales from minutes to millennia, reflecting complex and locally-specific layering of impacts from chronic and acute hazards. For example, long-term relative sea level rise (RSLR) is governed here by tectonic motion, with the highest west coast rates of RSLR found at the southern end of Cascadia, while RSLR is muted along some stretches of the Olympic Peninsula in the north by uplift. The Cascadia CoPes hub is designed to test two overarching hypotheses: (1) fundamental advances in convergent coastal hazard sciences will transform understanding of the risks coastal communities face and (2) an inclusive, co-produced approach to advancing hazard assessment and mitigation will increase coastal communities’ adaptive capacity and broaden participation in achieving equitable and just disaster risk reduction. With collaboratories representing the diversity of Cascadia coastlines and peoples, the project will: (a) identify likely sources of earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and land-level change, integrate new observations and develop coupled event simulations based on novel probabilistic tectonic multi-hazard risk models; (b) assess climate-driven compound fluvial-coastal flooding and how these drive coastal morphology changes and ecosystems, to quantify probabilistic exposure to coastal hazards under present and future conditions; (c) assess risk mitigation and dynamic adaptation strategies, including use of natural and nature-based features, (d) identify and test multi-use and asset-focused adaptation strategies for disaster risk reduction in processes that incorporate TEK/LEK, (e) study the inclusiveness of coastal governance structures for hazards resilience and science-informed hazards response, and (f) explore the conceptual linkages and communications challenges across (a-e).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.