Analysis of Impacts of Environmental and Natural Hazards on Human Migration

预计在未来几十年内，与气候有关的灾害将使世界各地数百万人永久或暂时流离失所。在美国，沿海城市面临着海平面上升和更强烈的热带风暴的双重威胁，极端降水导致更多的洪水事件，而西部各州则受到气候相关的变暖和干燥的影响，导致野火活动增加。联邦、州和地方政府已投资于减灾和适应，以加强定居点应对这些环境危害，但越来越多的科学家和政策参与者承认气候移民是不可避免的。结合人类和环境的灾害-移民关系的理解锚定在社会科学是关键的政策制定围绕灾后重建，人口搬迁，并管理撤退。该项目创建了一个名为环境迁移系统数据集（DEMS）的新数据集，以调查热带气旋，洪水和野火等高度破坏性的气候相关灾害对美国人口迁移行为的影响，以及在过去20年中按年龄，性别，种族，民族和出生地定义的人口亚组。这些灾害在空间和时间尺度、频率以及影响社区的机制方面各不相同，并提供了对比，以支持对灾害驱动的人类移徙以及为什么某些人口群体可能更容易发生气候移徙的广泛理解的调查。为了实现了解气候相关灾害对移民行为的影响的总体项目目标，工作围绕三个核心目标进行：1）构建新的时空数据集，以支持环境灾害和美国内部移民的分析; 2）调查环境灾害与人口再分配之间的关系，作为一个整体，并通过社会人口分组;支持公众使用DEMS。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Climate-related hazards are expected to permanently or temporarily displace millions of people around the world in the coming decades. In the US, coastal cities face the twin threats of sea-level rise and more intense tropical storms, with extreme precipitation contributing to more flood events, while Western states are primed by climate-related warming and drying for increased wildfire activity. Federal, state, and local governments have invested in hazard mitigation and adaptation to reinforce settlements against these environmental hazards, but increasingly scientists and policy actors are acknowledging that climate migration is inevitable. A coupled human and environmental understanding of the hazard-migration relationship anchored in the social sciences is critical for policy development around post-disaster rebuilding, population relocation, and managed retreat. The project creates a new dataset called the Dataset on Environment-Migration Systems (DEMS) to investigate the effects of highly destructive climate-related hazards such as tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on migration behavior for the US population as well as for population subgroups defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and nativity during the past 20 years. These hazards differ in their spatial and temporal scales, frequency, and the mechanisms by which they affect communities and provide contrasts to support investigations that build a broad understanding of hazard-driven human migration and why some demographic groups may be more prone to climate migration. To achieve the overarching project goal of understanding the effects of climate-related hazards on migration behavior, the work is structured around three core objectives: 1) construction of a new spatiotemporal dataset to support analyses of environmental hazards and internal US migration; 2) investigation of relationships between environmental hazards and the redistribution of the population as a whole and by sociodemographic sub-groups; and 3) support of public use of the DEMS.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.