CAREER: Climate and competition interact to determine species' phenology and coexistence.

在一个群落中发现的有机体的类型由一个地区的气候以及竞争对手、捕食者和互助者的存在决定。气候也可能影响不同年度生活事件的时间(称为物候期)，例如植物开花、昆虫出现和鸟类迁徙的时间。由于生物体对温度和降雨量的变化可能有不同的敏感性，它们生命事件的相关时间差异可能会导致群落的“重新洗牌”。换句话说，生物体物候的这些变化可能会导致一些物种与新的伴侣互动，并失去另一些物种的关系。这个项目将研究植物生活史的变化如何影响它们与其他植物的竞争，这反过来又可能影响在一个地区发现的植物的类型。在专注于加州野花群落的同时，这个项目将使我们更广泛地了解如何在不断变化的环境条件下保持植物多样性。该项目将指导人数不足的本科生，将公民科学家纳入数据收集，并将培训研究生使用先进的统计方法。尽管物种对变化的气候条件有不同的物候反应，但这种变化的原因以及对种群和群落的相关后果仍然知之甚少。这个项目将研究天气、物候和竞争如何相互作用来影响物种的适合度、共存和入侵物种的影响。通过整合大规模分布式田间实验和集中式局部实验(可以控制降水和温度，以及物种多样性和密度)的结果，本研究将测试共存理论，以了解物候和竞争如何影响植物种群动态和多样性。公民科学家和生态学家之间的合作将扩展目前的物候监测方法，并收集目标物种的人口统计数据。实地和实验研究的结果将被用于预测人口模型的参数化。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The types of organisms found within a community are determined by the climate of an area and the presence of competitors, predators, and mutualists. Climate may also influence the timing of different yearly life events (referred to as phenology), such as when plants flower, insects emerge, and birds migrate. Because organisms may have different sensitivities to changes in temperature and rainfall, associated differences in the timing of their life events may lead to the 'reshuffling' of communities. In other words, these changes in the phenologies of organisms may lead some species to interact with new partners and lose their relationships others. This project will examine how changes in the timing of life events of plants may influence their competition with other plants, which in turn may influence the types of plants that will be found in an area. While focusing on wildflower communities in California, this project will inform our broader understanding of how plant diversity can be maintained given changing environmental conditions. This project will mentor underrepresented undergraduate students, will incorporate citizen scientists in data collection, and will train graduate students in advanced statistical methods. Although it is well documented that species vary in their phenological responses to changing climatic conditions, the causes of this variation are still poorly understood, as are the associated consequences for populations and communities. This project will examine how weather, phenology and competition interact to influence species fitness, coexistence, and the impacts of invasive species. By integrating results from a large scale distributed field experiment and a centralized local experiment (where precipitation and temperature, as well as, species diversity and densities can be manipulated), this study will test coexistence theory to understand how phenology and competition affect plant population dynamics and diversity. A partnership between citizen scientists and ecologists will extend current phenology monitoring approaches and collect demographic data for target species. Results from the field and experimental studies will be used to parameterize predictive demographic models.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.