CAS-Climate: Understanding the link between regional climate patterns and water supply in the Horn of Africa

近几十年来，非洲之角一再发生严重干旱，造成了毁灭性的社会经济后果。他们强调，在一个以靠雨水维持生计的农业为主的区域，需要了解气候变化下水资源的现有情况和今后的可持续性。该项目的目的是建立大气降水过程与现有水资源之间的联系。它将全面评估气候变化如何影响埃塞俄比亚一个有代表性的流域的降雨量和变化、地表水供应和地下水补给。这些知识可以为该区域长期可持续发展的战略规划提供重要的见解，特别是在加强粮食安全、降低脆弱性和建设抵御与气候有关的自然灾害的能力方面。该项目还将促进美国和埃塞俄比亚科学家和学生之间的国际研究合作，并为地质和水文科学领域代表性不足的群体提供培训、指导和职业发展。该项目旨在建立非洲之角（HOA）区域气候模式和供水之间的联系。这方面的知识是至关重要的，在了解气候变化下的水资源在该地区的可持续性。为了实现这一目标，研究人员采用了一种跨学科的方法，将天气气候分析和同位素水文地球化学相结合。该项目的主要目标包括：（1）确定产生雨水的环流模式，并确定其季节间和季节内的变化以及过去对全球变暖的反应，（2）通过在气候和海拔梯度上的多个地点进行高分辨率降水同位素测量，确定不同天气类型降雨的独特同位素特征，以及（3）量化不同天气类型的降雨对地表径流和地下水补给的贡献。本研究的结果将弥合大循环模式的变化及其对流域水资源可用性的影响之间的差距。研究结果还可用于改进对未来降雨变异和变化的预测，以及对未来地表水和地下水资源可用性的评估。此外，新的水同位素数据集将为未来的水文气候研究提供基线，并更好地解释地质记录中的同位素气候代用品，该地区对人类进化具有重要意义。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

In recent decades, recurrent severe droughts in the Horn of Africa (HOA) have led to devastating socio-economic consequences. They have highlighted the need to understand the current availability and future sustainability of water resources under climate change in a region dominated by rain-fed subsistence agriculture. This project aims to establish the link between rain-producing atmospheric processes and available water resources. It will provide a comprehensive assessment of how climate change affects rainfall amount and variability, surface water availability, and groundwater recharge in a representative watershed in Ethiopia. This knowledge could provide important insight for the strategic planning of the region’s long-term sustainable development, particularly in terms of increasing food security, reducing vulnerability, and building resilience to climate-related natural disasters. The project will also foster international research collaboration between the US and Ethiopian scientists and students, and provide training, mentoring, and career development for under-represented groups in geological and hydrological sciences.This project aims to establish the link between regional climate patterns and water supply in the Horn of Africa (HOA). This knowledge is critical in understanding the sustainability of water resources under climate change in this region. To achieve this, the investigators adopt an interdisciplinary approach that integrates synoptic climate analysis and isotope hydro-geochemistry. The main objectives of this project include: (1) identify rain-producing circulation patterns and establish their inter-and intra-seasonal variability and past change in response to global warming, (2) establish distinct isotopic signatures of rainfall from different weather types through high-resolution precipitation isotope measurements in multiple sites across the climatic and elevation gradients, and (3) quantify the contribution of rainfall from different weather types to surface flow and groundwater recharge. The outcomes of this study will bridge the gap between changes in the large circulation patterns and their impacts on water resource availability at the watershed scale. The results can also be used to improve predictions of future rainfall variability and change, and assessment of future availability of surface and groundwater resources. In addition, the new water isotope dataset will provide a baseline for future hydro-climatic research and better interpretation of isotope climate proxy in the geologic record in a region important for human evolution.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.