CAREER: Space-time Variations in the Pace of Surface Temperature Change

在气候变化研究和推广中，大部分讨论都围绕着地球正在经历的全球变暖程度，即气候变暖了多少。同样重要和相关的是变暖发生的速度——变暖有多快？变暖的速度在空间和时间上是波动的。变暖速度的加快是人们最关心的问题，因为它可能引发气候变化反馈。此外，变暖速度的加快可能会减少物种未来适应的时间，威胁生物多样性和生态系统功能，并影响群落的适应和生存能力。研究人员将对全球气候观测进行统计分析，以确定过去两个世纪以来气候变暖速度加快的连贯地区和时期。然后，研究人员将使用模式模拟来确定所探测到的变化（人为的、自然的或随机的）的原因，并量化到本世纪末未来变暖速率的变化。两名研究生将成为研究小组的一员。为了配合这项研究，研究者将为学生、教育工作者、管理人员、政策制定者和更广泛的公众开发免费、可获取和公平的资源。研究者将开发一个开源、交互式的数字图书，作为R编程语言的气候和环境数据科学资源，并帮助填补本科和研究生阶段环境科学课程中数据科学培训的空白。一个由本科生组成的团队将开发一个用户友好的仪表板，以可视化和监测世界不同地区（包括土著祖先的土地）的温度变化速度。通过对仪表板的监测，可以确定变暖速度加快的地区，这将为研究提供信息和扩展，并推动与不同利益相关者群体的接触。监测气候变化的速度对于面临风险的社区、决策者和利益相关者及时做出决策至关重要。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

In climate change research and outreach, much of the discussion is centered around the amount of global warming the Earth is experiencing, i.e., by how much the climate has warmed. Equally important and relevant is the rate at which this warming occurs - how fast is the warming? The rate of warming fluctuates in space and time. Acceleration in the rate of warming is of primary concern since it might trigger climate change feedbacks. Furthermore, acceleration in the rate of warming can leave less time for species to adapt in the future, threaten biodiversity and ecosystem function, and impact communities’ ability to adapt and survive. The investigator will conduct statistical analysis of global climate observations to identify coherent regions and periods with accelerated rates of warming over the last two centuries. The investigator will then use model simulations to identify the causes of the detected changes (human, natural, or random) and to quantify future changes in the rate of warming through the end of this century. Two graduate students will be part of the research team.In concert with this research, the investigator will develop freely available, accessible, and equitable resources for students, educators, managers, policy makers, and the wider public. The investigator will develop an open source, interactive, digital book, as a resource for climate and environmental data science in the R programming language and help fill the gap in data science training in environmental sciences curricula, both at the undergraduate and graduate levels. A user-friendly dashboard will be developed with a team of undergraduate students to visualize and monitor the pace of temperature change for different regions of the world, including Indigenous ancestral lands. Through monitoring with the dashboard, regions with accelerated rates of warming can be identified, which will inform and extend the research as well as drive engagement with different stakeholder groups. Monitoring the rate of climate change is crucial for timely decisions by communities at risk, decision makers, and stakeholders.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.