CAREER: Multiscale Probabilistic Characterization of Seismic Site Response in Highly Uncertain Environments

该教师早期职业发展（CAREER）奖将推进有关土壤对多尺度地震地面震动反应的科学知识，并使其能够纳入配水系统的系统级概率地震危险评估中。地表附近的空间变化的地质结构对地面震动的强度（称为场地效应）产生重大影响，并可能加剧对建筑环境的破坏。饮用水和废水设施是关键的生命线，因为地震破坏对消防能力、公共卫生和经济产生了重大的负面影响。这项CAREER赠款将促进配水系统系统级地震灾害评估的范式转变，以克服目前过度简化近地表地质条件影响的做法。考虑到场地影响和不确定性，可以减少损害和服务损失，并改进事后快速损害评估。教育影响包括重塑学生在数据分析和不确定性量化方面的培训，而主要的推广影响是在拉丁美洲发起了第一个地震工程和地震学社区联盟（E2 SCALA）。该CAREER赠款的目标是（1）促进场地反应多尺度评估的科学知识，并将其纳入系统-（2）改进保留战略，扩大妇女和拉丁美洲学生在STEM领域的参与。将使用数值建模、地理空间分析和不确定性量化。将制定一个新的有条件的现场响应模型，能够适应和整合所有现有的地下数据和相关的不确定性。将量化空间可变场地效应对地震动强度措施之间的空间相关性的影响，以及场地响应中的方位角依赖性。将创建一个改进的系统级概率方法，仅在系统的关键位置纳入局部站点的影响，遍历性将被假定在其他地方的计算效率。改进的概率方法将在三个案例研究的供水系统。“Escala”在西班牙语中的意思是“攀登”和“扩大”，这些都是这个职业项目的关键驱动力。E2 SCALA将提供开放的教育资源（英语和西班牙语），多层次的虚拟导师，以及合作伙伴学术机构的拉丁美洲学生的合作机会;帮助学生发挥最大潜力（攀登），同时建立一个与他们的社区目标一起成长的网络该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) award will advance scientific knowledge on the response of soils to earthquake ground shaking at multiple scales and enable its incorporation into system-level probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for water distribution systems. The spatially variable geologic structure near the ground surface exerts a significant influence on the intensity of ground shaking (known as site effects) and can exacerbate damage to the built environment. Drinking water and wastewater utilities are critical lifelines because of the significant negative effects of earthquake damage on the ability to fight fires, on public health, and the economy. This CAREER grant will foster a paradigm shift in system-level seismic hazard assessments for water distribution systems to overcome current practices that oversimplify the effects of near-surface geologic conditions. Accounting for site effects and uncertainty can reduce damage and service losses and improve post-event rapid damage assessments. The educational impacts include reshaping students’ training in data analytics and uncertainty quantification, while the main outreach impact is the launch of the first Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Community Alliance in Latin America (E2SCALA).The goals of this CAREER grant are to (1) advance scientific knowledge underlying multiscale assessments of site response and incorporate it into system-level probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for water distribution systems, and (2) improve retention strategies for and broaden participation of women and Latin American students in STEM fields. Numerical modeling, geospatial analytics and uncertainty quantification will be used. A new conditional site response model capable of adapting to and integrating all available subsurface data and the associated uncertainties will be formulated. The influence of spatially variable site effects on spatial correlations among ground motion intensity measures will be quantified, as well as azimuth-dependencies in site response. An improved system-level probabilistic approach that incorporates local site effects only at critical locations of the system will be created, and ergodicity will be assumed elsewhere for computational efficiency. The improved probabilistic approach will be implemented in three case studies of water distribution systems. "Escala" means "to climb" and also "to scale" in Spanish and those are key drivers of this CAREER project. E2SCALA will provide open access to educational resources (in English and Spanish), multi-tiered virtual mentorship, and collaboration opportunities to Latin American students at partner academic institutions; helping students reach their highest potential (to climb), while building a network that grows with their community goals (to scale up).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.