Rossby Wave Breaking Archetypal Patterns, Processes and Projected Changes from the 20th (twentieth) to the 21st (twenty-first) Century

通常发生在中纬度地区的天气部分是由急流（在地面8-13公里处发现的强风走廊）和与之传播的Rossby波相关的大气波动驱动的。这些波通常具有类似于海洋中的涌浪的模式，因为它们相对较宽且滚动。然而，在某些情况下，它们可能会破碎，类似于波浪在海岸线上破碎的外观。当罗斯贝波在大气中破裂时，它们经常与高影响力的天气现象有关，如延长的热浪和寒潮，极端降水和大气阻塞，这些现象可以显着改变急流的路径。这些Rossby波破裂可以呈现各种不同的形状和尺寸（即，这可能决定了它们在哪里以及如何调节中纬度的极端天气。到目前为止，还没有对不同的破波口味进行全面分析。这项研究的目标是利用机器学习来了解北方半球Rossby波破碎在现在和未来气候中的共同特征。研究人员将评估过去观测中罗斯贝波破裂的特征，并试图确定气候模型在多大程度上能够代表这种模式及其对急流和天气的相关影响。拟议的工作还将探讨如何这些罗斯比波打破口味，频率和影响可能会改变在21世纪世纪。 鉴于罗斯贝波破碎，急流和高影响天气之间的密切联系，更好地了解这些事件在现在和未来是社会重要的。罗斯贝波破裂模式如何在下一个世纪变化的探索，应该阐明一个关键领域的兴趣，科学界和更广泛的公众。作为拟议活动的一部分，调查人员将指导一名研究生和两名本科生。一名本科生研究人员将帮助开发一个实时Rossby波打破业务预报跟踪工具，而第二个将探讨在气候敏感的地中海地区的Rossby波打破变化的影响。因此，这项研究将有助于提高我们对这些高影响事件的基本理解，培养下一代天气和气候交叉研究的科学家，并提供研究界成员，业务预报员，政策/该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。

The weather that typically occurs in the middle latitudes is driven in part by the jet stream - a corridor of strong winds found 8-13 km above ground - and atmospheric undulations associated with Rossby waves that propagate with it. These waves typically have a pattern that resembles a swell in the ocean, in that they are relatively broad and rolling. However, in certain circumstances, they can break, resembling closely the appearance of a wave breaking on a shoreline. When Rossby waves break in the atmosphere, they are frequently associated with high-impact weather phenomena like extended heat and cold waves, extreme precipitation, and atmospheric blocking that can significantly alter the path of the jet stream. These Rossby wave breaks can take on a variety of different shapes and sizes (i.e., flavors) which may determine where and how they modulate mid-latitude extreme weather. To date, a comprehensive analysis of the different wave breaking flavors has yet to be undertaken. The goal of this research is to understand the common flavors of Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere in the present and future climate using machine learning. The investigators will assess the flavors of Rossby wave breaking in past observations and seek to identify how well climate models can represent such patterns and their associated impacts on the jet stream and weather. The proposed work will also explore how these Rossby wave break flavors, frequencies, and impacts may change over the 21st Century. Given the close linkage between Rossby wave breaking, the jet stream, and high-impact weather, a better understanding of these events in the present and future is societally important. The exploration of how Rossby wave break patterns change over the next century should shed light on a critical area of interest to both the science community and the broader public. As part of proposed activities, the investigators will mentor a graduate student as well as two undergraduate students. One undergraduate researcher will help to develop a real-time Rossby wave break tracking tool for operational forecasters, while the second will explore the impacts of changes in Rossby wave breaking over the climate-sensitive Mediterranean region. This research will thus serve to improve our fundamental understanding of these high impact events, train the next generation of scientists in the intersectional study of weather and climate, and provide information that is of interest to members of the research community, operational forecasters, and policy/adaptation decision makers.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.