PIPP Phase I: Modeling the Pandemic Lifecycle for Disease Control

尽管付出了相当大的努力，传染病专家仍无法预测下一次大流行。需要大胆的新方法来预测、预防和缓解大流行。该研究小组调查了“大流行生命周期”——从当地接触网络的传播开始，到区域传播，然后是国际传播——重点关注这一生命周期的早期阶段。在暴发的早期阶段，传染病通过接触方式在当地个人之间传播；随着疫情的发展，感染有可能在新的社区播下种子，并重复当地传播的过程。大多数传播在这些早期阶段未被发现，但这是控制最具成本效益和最有可能成功的时候。该项目审查传染病和人类知识如何在人际接触网络中相互作用，确定调查疫情早期阶段所需的方法和数据，并实施新方法，在大流行生命周期的背景下预测和控制疫情。研究结果可以帮助公共卫生当局和科学家更好地模拟和监测未来的疫情，有可能在全球范围内降低疾病风险、拯救生命和改善经济成果。来自北卡罗来纳三角地区三个机构的研究人员合作，利用以网络为中心的视角调查疫情。调查人员利用现有数据，并利用全球卫生、统计网络科学、经济学、工程学、生态学和进化、地理学和社会学方面的国际伙伴关系和优势，描述疫情和感染的区域传播特征。第一阶段的研究活动集中于一系列工作组和一项试点研究。工作组是围绕大流行生命周期的基本问题（但目前尚无答案）组织的。该试点研究旨在开发一个模拟模型来进一步探索这些问题，并验证和扩展统计方法，以表征与不完全采样相关的早期传播。该项目的最终目标是推进方法和知识，培养研究生和一名博士后研究人员，并为今后实施这些研究重点做好准备，以加强大流行的预测和控制。该奖项由流行病预防的跨部门预测情报第一阶段（PIPP）计划提供支持，该计划由生物科学（BIO）、计算机信息科学与工程（CISE）、工程（ENG）和社会、行为和经济科学（SBE）委员会共同资助。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Despite considerable effort, infectious disease experts are unable to predict the next major pandemic. Bold new approaches are needed for pandemic prediction, prevention, and mitigation. This research team investigates the “pandemic lifecycle” – starting from transmission on local contact networks, to regional and then international spread – with a focus on early stages of this lifecycle. During the early stages of an outbreak, an infectious disease spreads among individuals locally through contact patterns; as the outbreak grows, opportunities arise for infections to seed new communities and repeat the process of local transmission. Most transmission goes undetected in these early stages, yet this is when control is most cost-effective and most likely to succeed. The project examines how infectious disease and human knowledge interact on human contact networks, identifies methods and data needed to investigate early stages of outbreaks, and implements new approaches to predict and control outbreaks in the context of the pandemic lifecycle. Findings can help public health authorities and scientists to better model and monitor future outbreaks, with the potential to reduce disease risk, save lives, and improve economic outcomes globally. Researchers from across three institutions in the North Carolina Triangle region collaborate to investigate outbreaks using a network-centered perspective. The investigators use existing data and build on international partnerships and strengths in global health, statistical network sciences, economics, engineering, ecology and evolution, geography, and sociology to characterize outbreaks and the dissemination of infection regionally. The Phase I research activities focus on a series of Working Groups and a Pilot Study. The Working Groups are organized around fundamental – but currently unanswered – questions about the pandemic lifecycle. The Pilot Study aims to develop a simulation model to further explore these questions, and to validate and extend statistical methods to characterize early-stage transmission in relation to incomplete sampling. The ultimate goals of the project are to advance methods and knowledge, train graduate students and a postdoctoral researcher, and prepare for future implementation of these research thrusts to enhance pandemic prediction and control.This award is supported by the cross-directorate Predictive Intelligence for Pandemic Prevention Phase I (PIPP) program, which is jointly funded by the Directorates for Biological Sciences (BIO), Computer Information Science and Engineering (CISE), Engineering (ENG) and Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.