Adaptive capacities to respond to environmental change in Copper butterflies

目前人为气候变化被认为是保护生物多样性的最大挑战之一。有大量证据表明，气候变化已经对生物系统产生了重大影响，特别是范围转移和塑料反应已被广泛记录。然而，我们对决定气候变化成败的具体因素或特征的了解极为有限，妨碍了我们更准确地预测气候变化对现存生物多样性的后果的能力。在这种背景下，我将在这里使用比较的方法，基于不同种类的铜蝴蝶（灰蝶属），探索塑性能力和进化潜力，以应对温度变化。具体来说，我将研究（1）早期发育阶段的胁迫耐受性，（2）模拟气候变化对发育，生存和其他健康成分的影响，（3）成年阶段应对环境胁迫的塑性能力，以及（4）可能在热选择下的基因座的等位基因变异。所有伴随实验将包括来自同一属的物种，但在生态属性上有显著差异，从而反映出对气候变化的不同脆弱性，从目前正在下降的高风险物种到目前正在扩大的低风险物种。重点将放在塑性能力，因为表型可塑性可以非常快速和有效地缓冲短期环境变化的不利影响，因此预计将成为一个物种应对气候变化能力的主要决定因素。结合使用（1）对不同物种的比较方法，这些物种对气候变化的脆弱性不同，并且受到保护的关注，（2）具有生态现实环境和压力的强大实验设计，以及使用（3）从实验到分子生态学的一系列方法，将提供对气候变化时期失败或成功的潜在机制的新见解，这是一个迄今为止被忽视的研究领域。该项目的相关性远远超出了生物多样性研究，因为同样的机制对用于农业目的的物种也很重要。

Current anthropogenic climate change is considered one of the largest challenges for conserving biodiversity. There is rich evidence that climate change is already substantially affecting biological systems, and in particular range shifts and plastic responses have been widely documented. However, our understanding of the specific factors or traits determining success or failure in the light of climate change is extremely limited, hampering our abilities to more accurately predict the consequences of climate change on extant biodiversity. Against this background I will here use a comparative approach, based on different species of Copper butterflies (Lycaena spp.), to explore plastic capacities and evolutionary potential in response to temperature variation. Specifically, I will investigate (1) stress tolerance in early developmental stages, (2) the effects of simulated climate change on development, survival and other components of fitness, (3) plastic capacities to respond to environmental stress in the adult stage, and (4) allelic variation at loci that are likely under thermal selection. All concomitant experiments will include species from the same genus, but nevertheless differing strikingly in ecological attributes and thus reflecting different vulnerabilities to climate change, ranging from currently declining high risk to currently expanding low risk species. Emphasis will be placed on plastic capacities, as phenotypic plasticity can be extremely fast and efficient in buffering detrimental effects of short-term environmental variation, and is therefore expected to be a major determinant of a species ability to deal with climate change. The combination of using (1) a comparative approach with species differing in their vulnerability to climate change and being of conservation concern, (2) powerful experimental designs with ecologically realistic settings and stressors, and using (3) an array of methods ranging from experimental through to molecular ecology will provide novel insights into the mechanisms underlying failure or success in times of changing climates, comprising a hitherto largely neglected area of research. The relevance of this project extends well beyond biodiversity research, as the same mechanisms will be important for species used for agricultural purposes.