DISES: Socio-environmental dynamics determining the climate mitigation and adaptation potential of midwestern US agroecosystems

自然气候解决方案是对生态系统进行有管理的改变，旨在增强其储存二氧化碳或减少温室气体排放的能力。在美国中西部严格管理的农业用地上，覆盖作物是在传统管理的农田休耕时生长的不可收获作物，作为一种自然气候解决方案，得到了大量公共和私营部门的支持。然而，对覆盖作物可实现的气候效益的估计是不确定的，也不知道社会和经济因素如何与环境反馈相互作用，以决定个别生产者是否将在必要的规模上采用覆盖作物。本项目将研究影响美国中西部农田覆盖作物气候缓解和适应潜力的社会和环境因素，以确定覆盖作物最有可能在何时何地作为自然气候解决方案获得成功。这项研究将通过与广泛的公共和私营利益攸关方（从个体农民到州和国家级官员）建立坚定的伙伴关系，提供可操作的政策和管理指导。本项目围绕四个研究问题进行组织，旨在确定1)覆盖作物影响碳、养分、水和能源循环的田间尺度生物物理机制；2)这些生物物理机制如何与管理决策相互作用，以控制中西部地区的缓解和适应潜力；3)土地所有者对覆盖作物有效性和盈利能力的看法如何决定当前和未来的实施速度。4)所有这些因素如何相互作用，以确定哪些地方通过覆盖种植缓解气候变化的机会最大。方法包括密集的实地活动，最先进的遥感方法，生产者访谈和调查，以及经济模型。通过这些综合活动，目标是：1)全面关闭农田尺度的碳、水和能源预算，以阐明覆盖作物赋予气候效益的机制；2)绘制中西部覆盖作物气候减缓和适应潜力，并记录其如何受到区域尺度因素的影响；3)调查生产者对覆盖作物的经验如何受到环境因素、宏观经济反馈和社会规范的影响。4)开发新的方法来确定自然气候解决方案最有可能成功和最需要的地方。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Natural climate solutions are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to enhance their ability to store carbon dioxide or to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. In the intensely managed agricultural lands of the Midwestern United States, cover crops, which are non-harvestable crops that grow when conventionally managed fields are fallow, have substantial public and private-sector support as a natural climate solution. However, estimates of the climate benefits achievable with cover crops are uncertain, and it is not known how social and economic factors interact with environmental feedbacks to determine whether individual producers will adopt cover crops at the necessary scales. This project will examine the social and environmental factors that govern the climate mitigation and adaptation potential of cover crops in Midwestern U.S. croplands in order to determine when and where cover crops are most likely to succeed as a natural climate solution. This research will provide actionable policy and management guidance through committed partnership with a broad community of public and private stakeholders, ranging from individual farmers to state and national-level officials.This project is organized around four research questions, aimed at determining 1) field-scale biophysical mechanisms by which cover crops affect carbon, nutrient, water and energy cycles, 2) how these biophysical mechanisms interact with management decisions to govern mitigation and adaptation potential across the Midwest, 3) how landowners' perceptions of cover crop effectiveness and profitability determine current and future rates of implementation, and 4) how all of these factors interact to determine where the opportunity for climate mitigation with cover cropping is greatest. Methods include intensive field campaigns, state-of-the-art remote sensing methods, producer interviews and surveys, and economic modeling. Through these integrated activities, the goals are to: 1) fully close the field-scale carbon, water, and energy budgets to elucidate the mechanisms by which cover crops confer climate benefits, 2) map cover crop climate mitigation and adaptation potential across the Midwest, and document how it is shaped by regional-scale factors, 3) investigate how producers’ experience with cover crops is shaped by environmental factors, macro-scale economic feedbacks, and social norms, and 4) develop new approaches for identifying where natural climate solutions are most likely to succeed and most needed.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.