Collaborative Research: Prescribed Burning Decisions and Risk-Risk Tradeoffs

在美国和世界各地，野火及其对环境和社会的影响正在增长。规定(Rx)燃烧可以是减少植被和降低灾难性野火风险的有效管理技术。尽管有潜在的好处，但近年来全国大部分地区的Rx燃烧程度保持不变或有所下降。这在一定程度上是由于Rx燃烧本身存在风险，包括烟雾暴露和计划中的火灾逃生控制的可能性。做出Rx燃烧决定需要在这些风险和与不受控制的野火相关的风险之间做出明智的权衡。为了给这些决策提供信息，该项目评估了两个关键问题。首先，实施Rx燃烧的人和附近社区居民的决定如何影响潜在的Rx燃烧影响？为了回答这个问题，研究小组在大量Rx烧伤现场附近进行了一段时间的测量，捕获了Rx烧伤附近的居民暴露在多少烟雾中，以及Rx燃烧经验是否影响对这种管理方法的支持等信息。其次，感知到的风险-风险权衡如何影响对扩大Rx燃烧以减轻荒地-城市交界处(WUI)和非WUI居民的野火风险的支持？为了回答这个问题，研究人员对WUI和非WUI地区的居民进行了调查，以了解他们的风险认知和政策支持。理解这些权衡对于制定风险管理政策至关重要。规定(处方)燃烧需要精心计划的火灾在受控条件下点燃，以管理可能引发灾难性火灾和WUI社区灾难的燃料。美国国家凝聚力荒地管理战略确定Rx燃烧是一种具有成本效益的解决方案，但其使用仍然有限，特别是在美国西部。管理野火和其他与气候有关的灾害需要权衡风险与风险之间的权衡，以便制定有效、平衡的战略，保护社区和环境。这一跨学科项目采用混合方法，在自然灾害管理的背景下增进关于风险决策的知识。研究人员开发了一个新的概念模型，使风险-风险权衡的概念适应于Rx燃烧决策的背景。这个概念模型指导跨学科研究设计以解决两个关键研究问题：1)实施者和居民的决策如何影响Rx烧伤现场附近WUI社区的Rx燃烧影响？为了回答这个问题，该团队生成并分析了首个此类数据集，其中集成了多年来对处方烧伤地点附近的环境条件、烟雾排放、建筑环境(住房)特征、空气质量、暴露、健康和感知体验指标的测量。2)感知的风险-风险权衡如何影响对扩大处方燃烧以降低WUI和非WUI居民的野火风险的支持？该团队实施了一项基于调查的大型选择实验，以得出风险-风险权衡，并评估Rx燃烧支持，分析数据以了解不同的风险属性和个人特征如何塑造风险认知和政策支持。研究团队在整个研究过程中与利益相关者接触，包括政策制定者和监管机构、野火管理人员和Rx Burn实施者，以及公众成员，以确保结果相关和有用。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Wildfires and their environmental and social impacts are growing in the US and around the world. Prescribed (Rx) burning can be an effective management technique to reduce vegetation and reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfires. Despite its potential benefits, the annual extent of Rx burning has stayed the same or decreased across much of the country in recent years. This is due in part to the fact that Rx burning entails its own risks, including smoke exposure and the possibility of a planned fire escaping control. Making Rx burning decisions requires making informed tradeoffs between these risks and the risks associated with uncontrolled wildfires. To inform these decisions, this project assesses two key questions. First, how do decisions by those who implement Rx burning and by residents in nearby communities shape potential Rx burning impacts? To answer this question, the research team takes measurements near a large number of Rx burn sites over time, capturing information such as how much smoke residents near Rx burns are exposed to and whether experience with Rx burning influences support for this management approach. Second, how do perceived risk-risk tradeoffs influence support for expanded Rx burning to mitigate wildfire risk among wildland-urban interface (WUI) and non-WUI residents? To answer this question, the researchers survey residents in WUI and non-WUI areas to understand risk perceptions and policy support. Understanding these tradeoffs is critical to shaping risk management policy. Prescribed (Rx) burning entails carefully planned fires lit under controlled conditions to manage fuels that can spur catastrophic fires and WUI community disasters. The US National Cohesive Wildland Management Strategy identifies Rx burning as a cost-effective solution, but its use has remained limited, particularly in the American West. Managing wildfire and other climate-related hazards involves weighing risk-risk tradeoffs in order to develop effective, balanced strategies that protect communities and the environment. This interdisciplinary project uses a mixed-methods approach to advance knowledge on decision making under risk in the context of natural hazard management. The researchers develop a novel conceptual model that adapts the concept of risk-risk tradeoffs to the context of Rx burning decisions. This conceptual model guides the interdisciplinary research design to address two key research questions: 1) How do decisions by implementers and residents shape Rx burning impacts for WUI communities in proximity to Rx burn sites? To answer this question, the team generates and analyzes a first-of-its-kind dataset integrating measurements of environmental conditions, smoke emissions, built environment (housing) characteristics, air quality, exposure, health, and perceived experience measures near Rx burn sites over multiple years. 2) How do perceived risk-risk tradeoffs influence support for expanded Rx burning to mitigate wildfire risk among WUI and non-WUI residents? The team implements a large survey-based choice experiment to elicit risk-risk tradeoffs and assess Rx burning support, analyzing data to understand how different risk attributes and individual characteristics shape risk perceptions and policy support. The research team is engaging with stakeholders, including policy-makers and regulators, wildfire managers and Rx burn implementers, and members of the public, throughout the research process to ensure that the results are relevant and useful.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.