Assessing the Effects of Risk Interdependency, Social Norms, and Costs on Homeowners' Wildfire Mitigation Decisions using Choice Experiments

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Homeowners' decisions in fire-prone areas play a crucial role in shaping wildfire occurrence and impacts. These decisions are interdependent: each household's actions can affect the choices of neighbors. This study explores two pathways linking homeowners' choices: risk interdependency (i.e., the fact that the risk that any individual faces is affected by the level of mitigation on neighboring properties) and social norms (specifically, the possibility that comparative information highlighting high levels of mitigation among neighbors may encourage households to increase their mitigation levels). The research involves a web-based survey of homeowners living in fire-prone areas of Colorado's Western Slope to measure the effects of risk interdependency, social norms, and costs on risk reduction decisions. The approach combines both observational and experimental data collection in order to separately identify the influence of risk interdependency and social norms messages on hazard mitigation behavior. Specifically, the survey instrument involves both 1) observational data on current knowledge, risk perceptions, and practices; and 2) choice experiments that vary neighbors' mitigation levels, social norms messages, and costs in order to assess the impact of these factors on wildfire mitigation behaviors. The intellectual merit of this project lies in the integration of two strands of research that have separately pursued the understanding of risk interdependency and social norms. The use of choice experiments also overcomes the challenge of purely observational studies, in which it is difficult to separate causal social effects from other explanations for common patterns of behavior within social groups, such as shared characteristics or influences. At the same time, the observational data puts the experimental results in context and helps to inform the data analysis and policy recommendations. In the past 10 years, areas throughout the United States have incurred increased economic and social costs due to wildfire. In the face of increasing wildfire hazards, action at multiple scales is required to effectively reduce fire risk. In particular, individual homeowners play a central role through the actions they take (or do not take) to mitigate wildfire risk on their private property. This study contributes to a growing body of knowledge on the factors that shape wildfire-related behaviors by homeowners in fire-prone areas. More specifically, by focusing attention on the ways in which households can influence each other in the face of wildfire risk, the results can help to inform policies that harness the power of social norms to increase private mitigation actions in the face of interdependent risk. The research tests whether a program giving homeowners social comparison messages (e.g., "You are doing less wildfire mitigation than 75% of your neighbors.") could induce behavior change. The insights gained can provide direct feedback to forest and fire managers currently engaged in community outreach, potentially informing the design of programs aimed at reducing wildfire risk.