RAPID: Can Big Ideas About Resilience Survive the Reality of a Disaster? Built Environment Policy and Recovery After the Marshall Fire

2021年12月30日，由气候和天气驱动的马歇尔大火摧毁了路易斯维尔、苏必利尔县和未合并的博尔德县社区的1084座房屋，损坏了149座房屋，成为科罗拉多州历史上最具破坏性的火灾。对于这些以及越来越多因气候变化而面临一系列新风险的社区来说，关键问题现在浮出水面：这些事件是否会增强社区建立气候适应能力的决心，还是会削弱公众对有利于降低短期恢复成本的此类政策的支持？经历过重建和恢复的社区成员是否会改变他们对复原力政策的看法和支持？这一快速反应研究赠款(RAPID)项目侧重于地方一级的法规，这些法规有助于社区的灾害和气候适应能力，但可能会使发展成本更高，特别是在短期内。先前的研究表明，公众的支持以及外部资源和项目的可用性和需求决定了这些地方政府的决定，但尚不清楚这种支持在灾难等冲击后是否会发生变化，以及在多大程度上会发生变化。本研究通过收集马歇尔火灾后易腐烂的数据，试图了解这些政策决策如何受到个人偏好和决策的影响。这项研究以灾后恢复和弹性理论为指导，描述了地方政府政策在灾难事件发生后如何成功或失败。灾后规划和政策环境的特点是时间压缩，即城市发展进程在较短的时间范围内进行。一些计划和政策比其他计划和政策更适合压缩时间；尤其是，压缩时间对于规划和监管等官僚活动具有挑战性，这些活动通常依赖漫长的利益攸关方和公众参与过程来帮助平衡短期和长期的政策考虑。与此同时，大量研究表明，政府主导的恢复过程--如何制定政策以及利益相关者和居民参与的性质、质量和协调--对地方政府在灾后可能做出的政策变化的广度和范围具有重大影响。聚焦事件学术研究表明，这种关系在灾难发生后可能特别重要，因为对政府的信任、政策偏好和公众对决策的参与可能会有很大差异，有时是由技术官僚领导的，而不是通过公开的咨询程序。对政府的信任--受到政府官员和工作人员与居民沟通的影响，以及社区内建立的灾难恢复过程的双向协商性质--也是是否做出政策变化以增强韧性的重要决定因素。目前尚不清楚的是，在发生了马歇尔大火这样的意外和计划外的灾难后，先前建立的弹性政策能否在时间压缩的恢复过程中生存下来。为了调查这些问题，研究小组将(1)对马歇尔火灾发生时居住在三个受影响司法管辖区的个人进行纵向调查，以评估他们重建或重新安置的意图、他们对恢复进程的参与、他们对复原力政策的支持，以及他们随着时间的推移对政府的态度和信任。他们还将(2)采访地方政府选举产生的官员，(3)观察灾难恢复会议，(4)分析灾难火灾后第一年与恢复相关的计划和文件。研究小组将分析这些数据，以寻求更清楚地了解在时间压缩的灾难恢复期间地方级别的弹性政策偏好和流程。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

On December 30, 2021, the climate-enabled and weather-driven Marshall Fire destroyed 1,084 homes and damaged 149 more in the communities of Louisville, Superior, and unincorporated Boulder County, becoming the most destructive fire in Colorado’s history. For these and the growing number of communities facing a new set of risks due to climate change, key questions now emerge: Will these events strengthen communities’ resolve to build climate resilience, or erode public support for such policies in favor of reducing short-term recovery costs? And do community members who live through rebuilding and recovery shift their opinions of and support for resilience policies? This Grant for Rapid Response Research (RAPID) project focuses on local-level regulations that contribute to disaster and climate resilience of communities but that can make development more costly, particularly in the short-term. Prior work has shown that public support and the availability and requirements of external resources and programs shape these local government decisions, but it is unclear whether and to what extent this support changes after a shock such as a disaster. This study seeks to understand how these policy decisions are affected by and affect individual preferences and decisions by collecting perishable data after the Marshall Fire.This study is guided by theories of post-disaster recovery and resilience that describe how local government policies succeed or fail after catastrophic events. The post-disaster planning and policy environment is characterized by time compression, when urban development processes occur within shortened timeframes. Some plans and policies are more compatible with time compression than others; in particular, time compression is challenging for bureaucratic activities like planning and regulation that ordinarily rely on lengthy stakeholder and public engagement processes to help balance short- and long-term policy considerations. Meanwhile, a substantial body of research shows that the process of government-led recovery – how policies are formulated and the nature, quality, and coordination of stakeholder and resident engagement – has significant influence on the breadth and scope of policy changes that local governments are likely to make after a disaster. The focusing events scholarship suggests that this relationship may be especially important after disaster when trust in government, policy preferences, and public involvement in decision making can vary significantly, sometimes being led by technocrats rather than through open consultative processes. Trust in government – influenced by communication from government officials and staff to residents and also by the two-way consultative nature of disaster recovery processes established in a community – is also an important determinant of whether policy changes to bolster resilience are made. What is unclear is whether previously established resilience policies can survive in the time-compressed recovery process after an unanticipated and un-planned-for disaster like the Marshall Fire. To investigate these questions, the research team will (1) administer a longitudinal survey of individuals who lived in three affected jurisdictions at the time of the Marshall Fire to assess their intent to rebuild or relocate, their engagement in the recovery process, their support for resilience policies, and their attitudes towards and trust in government over time. They will also (2) interview local government elected officials, (3) observe disaster recovery meetings, and (4) analyze recovery-related plans and documents during the first year after the catastrophic fire. The research team will analyze these data to seek a clearer understanding of local-level resilience policy preferences and processes during time-compressed disaster recovery.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.