DISES: Decision Making for Land Use Planning under Future Climate Scenarios through Engaged Research via Co-Design

由于人类活动，生物多样性明显丧失，许多物种濒临灭绝。然而，人类也有能力做出决定，以防止生物多样性的丧失和改善地球上的生态系统功能。这项研究解决了科学家和决策者如何共同努力，以利用最佳可用数据、技术和预测工具的方式，以可转化为政策行动的方式，开发可持续土地利用解决方案的问题。该项目的研究人员将直接与世界上第二个生物多样性最丰富的国家哥伦比亚的科学家和政策制定者合作，开发能够预测未来土地使用变化的模型，并利用这些模型做出可持续的土地使用决策。将通过讲习班让广大参与者参与研究，在讲习班上将开发模型，并将利用参与者的反馈来改进产出的可用性和有用性。将对这种方法的有效性进行评估，以确定今后如何改进这种参与式研究方法。此外，该项目还将通过为学生和博士后提供培训和指导，扩大保护科学和STEM领域的参与度。该项目通过参与式研究方法将科学家和决策者聚集在一起，采用共同设计来推进更可行的知识生产系统，让决策者参与塑造研究，而不仅仅是接受结果。将通过将多样性、多尺度数据整合到动态预测模型中，推进土地利用和生物多样性预测的基本科学理论和模型，为可采取行动和可持续的土地利用计划提供信息，以防止生物多样性和生态系统服务的丧失，同时确保未来的粮食和能源安全。这些预测将根据利益攸关方的投入和反馈，用于确定保护、农业和能源土地使用的不同领域的优先次序，以便它们能够支持可持续土地使用决策，支持联合国可持续发展目标和生物多样性公约的30x30目标等全球目标。将评估模型对用户确定的情景和数据输入的敏感性，以告知模型如何应对目标变量的不同影响点，从而导致不同的土地使用优先次序和不同的模型参数化。知识创造和使用的过程也将被评估其效率和有效性，以更好地了解共同设计如何导致转化研究成果和干预措施，最终提高机构的决策能力。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

The apparent loss of biodiversity as a function of human activities has many species on the brink of extinction. However, humans slso have the power to make the decisions to prevent biodiversity losses and improve ecosystem functioning on Earth. This research addresses the question of how scientists and decision makers can work together to develop sustainable land-use solutions in a way that leverages the best available data, technology, and predictive tools in a manner that can be translated into policy action. The researchers on this project will work directly with scientists and policy makers in Colombia—the second most biodiverse country in the world—to develop models that can predict future land use changes and use those models to make sustainable land-use decisions. A broad set of participants will engage in the research through workshops where the models will be developed, and participant feedback will be used to improve the usability and usefulness of the outputs. The effectiveness of the approach will be evaluated to determine how such an engaged research approach can be improved in the future. Additionally, this project will broaden participation in conservation science and STEM by providing training and mentoring to students and postdocs.Bringing together scientists and decision makers through an engaged research approach, this project uses co-design to advance toward more viable systems of knowledge production that involve decision makers in shaping the research, not just receiving the outcomes. Basic scientific theories and models of land use and biodiversity forecasting will be advanced by integrating diverse, multi-scale data into dynamic prediction models to inform actionable and sustainable land use plans to prevent the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services while also ensuring food and energy security into the future. These projections will be used to prioritize different areas for conservation, agriculture, and energy land uses according to stakeholder inputs and feedback so that they can support sustainable land-use decisions in support of global targets such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 30x30 target. The sensitivity of the models to user-determined scenarios and data inputs will be assessed to inform how the model responds to different points of leverage on the target variables leading to different land use prioritizations and different model parameterizations. The process of knowledge creation and use will also be assessed for its efficacy and effectiveness to better understand how co-design can lead to translational research outcomes and interventions that will ultimately improve the decision-making capacity of agencies.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.