NNA Research: Collaborative Research: Socio-Ecological Systems Transformation in River basins of the sub-Arctic under climate change (SESTRA)

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。这项北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过解决以下NNA重点领域的社会系统和自然系统之间的相互作用，实现了这一目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、教育、预测、全球影响和弹性基础设施。随着社会和经济变革，全球某些地区正在经历迅速的环境变化。例如，鉴于水系统在寒冷地区的重要作用，气候和社会经济变化对许多河流社区产生了重大影响。该项目以位于阿拉斯加亚北极地区和欧亚大陆北部（蒙古）的偏远地区的库斯科维姆河和色楞格河流域为重点，分别分析了气候、水和社会之间不断变化的相互作用，目的是评估它们对人类、生态系统和基础设施的影响。研究人员还将与受影响的当地和土著社区合作，制定当前和未来的适应方案。该项目的成果将在网上公布，方便公众查阅，从而使受影响的社区能够做出基于证据的决策。最终，该项目将使居民和决策者了解气候和水循环的变化如何影响生活在寒冷地区的人们。此外，研究结果将为应对北极和亚北极地区当前和未来的气候变化提出有效的建议。项目成果将有助于应对当前和即将出现的气候变化挑战，并为未来国际社会推动的合作奠定基础。北极和亚北极地区正在经历由气候引起的环境变化以及重大的社会、经济和制度变化。该项目旨在分析不断变化的水文气候和社会系统的不同组成部分之间复杂的动态联系，以提高我们对社会生态系统（SES）相互作用的理解，评估它们对人类福祉的综合影响，并共同制定当前和未来的社区适应方案。这项研究由一个跨学科小组进行，将通过：a)识别和分析影响人类活动和生态系统服务的自然系统的水文气候成分的变化，b)分析河流社会经济系统的变化，促进对北极水文气候和人类过程的联系的理解；c)开展基于生态系统服务框架的高级社区参与模型，以了解本地和区域SES内部的相互作用；d)探索SES内部复杂的相互作用和反馈；e)提供未来SES变化的情景及其对生态系统服务的影响和群落适应方案。这些方法将结合跨学科整合、本土知识的参与、多尺度分析和建模，重点关注社区和利益相关者参与的研究、知识共享，以及实施跨学科和跨学科挑战的实用方法。这项研究将为阿拉斯加和蒙古地区和社区提供一套人类对气候、社会、经济和政治压力源的反应轨迹，并对更广泛的北极和亚北极地区产生影响。该项目将包括土著艺术家，并为学生和早期职业科学家制定广泛的培训计划。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. This Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems and natural systems in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Education, Forecasting, Global Impact, and Resilient Infrastructure.Certain parts of the globe are experiencing rapid environmental change coinciding with social and economic transformations. For example, given the vital role of water systems in cold regions, climate and socioeconomic changes have significantly impacted many riverine communities. Focusing on the Kuskokwim and Selenge river basins, located in remote parts of sub-Arctic Alaska and northern Eurasia (Mongolia), respectively, this project analyzes the changing interactions between climate, water, and society, with the goal of assessing their impact on people, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Researchers will also collaborate with impacted local and Indigenous communities to develop current and future adaptation options. Results from the project will be made available online for easy public access and so that impacted communities can make evidence-based decisions. Ultimately, this project will inform residents and policy makers on how changes in climate and water cycles impact people living in cold regions. Further, the results will recommend effective ways to deal with the current and future climate changes in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. Project results will help navigate the current and arising challenges of climate change and lay the foundation for future international community-driven collaboration. The Arctic and sub-Arctic are experiencing climate-induced environmental change alongside substantial social, economic, and institutional changes. This project seeks to analyze complex, dynamic linkages between different components of the changing hydroclimatological and social systems to improve our understanding of socio-ecological system (SES) interactions, assess their combined impact on human well-being, and co-develop current and future community adaptation options. This research, conducted by an interdisciplinary group, will advance understanding of linked hydroclimatic and human processes in the Arctic by: a) identifying and analyzing changes in hydroclimatological components of the natural system that affect human activities and ecosystem services, b) analyzing changes in riverine socioeconomic systems; c) conducting advanced community-engaged modeling based on the ecosystem services framework to understand interactions within the local and regional SES; d) exploring complex interactions and feedbacks within the SES; and e) providing scenarios for future SES changes and their impacts on ecosystem services and community adaptation options. The methodologies will combine transdisciplinary integration, engagement of Indigenous knowledge, multiscale analysis, and modeling, focusing on community- and stakeholder-engaged research, knowledge sharing, and implementing practical approaches to inter- and transdisciplinary challenges. This research will provide a set of plausible trajectories of human responses to climatic, social, economic, and political stressors developed for Alaskan and Mongolian regions and communities with implications for the broader Arctic and sub-Arctic. The project will involve Indigenous artists and develop an extensive training program for students and early career scientists.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.