An INUS theory of causal conditional reasoning

提出了一种因果条件推理的INUS理论。它建立在Mackie（1980）对原因的分析基础上，作为因果关系优先于INUS（即，不必要但充分的不充分但非冗余的部分）条件，并使用形式为“如果原因A存在，则结果B发生”的因果条件进行推理。根据INUS理论，因果条件句被解释为断言A是B的因果先验INUS条件，这意味着“AX或Y当且仅当B”与补充必要条件X和替代原因Y在很大程度上是隐含和未指定的，但默认情况下分别假设为真（X）和假或未知真值（Y）。INUS理论在一个共同的框架内解释了条件推理的经典（演绎）和新（概率）范式的发现。关于经典范式（1），新范式（2-3），以及它们之间的相互关系（4）的预测进行了测试：1）该理论预测了经典抑制范式中丰富的不同推理模式（Byrne，1989）。2)该理论预测，记录在案的与概率规范的差异（例如，在所谓的概率性肯定前件中忽视替代原因; Fernbach & Erb，2013）可以被消除，如果推理者对向他们提出的问题的解释被考虑在内。3)该理论挑战了经验上得到充分支持的“等式”（P（如果A，则B）= P（B|（1）在新的范式中。4)该理论预测，在抑制范式实验中，经典范式和新范式之间会出现新的、尚未发现的分离。

An INUS theory of causal conditional reasoning is proposed. It builds on Mackie's (1980) analysis of causes as causally prior INUS (i.e., insufficient but non-redundant parts of unnecessary but sufficient) conditions and addresses reasoning with causal conditionals of the form "If cause A is present, then the effect B occurs." According to the INUS theory, causal conditionals are interpreted as asserting that A is a causally prior INUS condition for B implying that "AX or Y if and only if B" with complementary necessary conditions X and alternative causes Y left largely implicit and unspecified, but by default assumed to be true (X) and false or of unknown truth value (Y), respectively. The INUS theory accounts for findings from the classical (deductive) and the new (probabilistic) paradigm of conditional reasoning within a common framework. Predictions are tested regarding the classical paradigm (1), the new paradigm (2-3), and their interrelationship (4): 1) The theory predicts a rich range of different inference patterns in the classical suppression paradigm (Byrne, 1989). 2) The theory predicts that documented discrepancies from the norms of probability (e.g., the neglect of alternative causes in so-called probabilistic modus ponens; Fernbach & Erb, 2013) can be eliminated if reasoners' interpretation of the questions put to them is taken into account. 3) The theory challenges the empirically well-supported "Equation" (P(If A, then B) = P(B | A)) in the new paradigm. 4) The theory predicts new, as yet undiscovered, dissociations between the classical and the new paradigms to occur in suppression-paradigm experiments.