Nonviolent Resistance and Democratic Consolidation

近年来，对独裁政权的非暴力抵抗重新引起了公众和学术界的兴趣。几项研究证实，非暴力策略在带来政治变革方面是有效的。然而，非暴力抵抗对巩固民主的长期影响到目前为止还没有研究过。该项目旨在填补这一空白。我们能够在初步分析中表明，在非暴力抵抗之后建立的民主政体，随着时间的推移，存活率明显高于其他民主政体。我们希望通过混合方法的研究设计，进一步研究非暴力抵抗和民主巩固之间的联系。在数量方面，我们扩展了我们的初步研究，分析抵抗模式是否不仅影响民主的生存，而且影响民主的质量。我们使用不同的民主巩固措施和不同的方法来检验这一命题，以控制可能的选择偏差。在质的方面，我们将与伯霍夫基金会的一个团队合作，对非洲和拉丁美洲的民主国家进行六项案例研究，以确定非暴力抵抗传递其影响的因果机制。我们从每个地区选择了三个稳定的民主政体，每个民主政体分别在非暴力抵抗、暴力抵抗和没有公众抵抗之后上台，以比较不同抵抗和过渡模式的因果效应。非洲病例的数据将在实地考察期间收集。对于拉丁美洲的案例，我们可以借鉴伯霍夫基金会以前收集的数据，以便这些案例研究可以作为案头研究进行。通过这种方式，该项目将有助于形成抵抗和政治变革的理论。通过控制潜在的选择偏差，它还提供了有关出现抗性运动的情况的额外信息。在项目结束时，我们将把我们的结果整合到现有的理论主体中，以提供对“最新技术”的新总结。为了使我们的研究与从业者相关，Berghof基金会将通过他们的系列出版物、培训材料以及在柏林和布鲁塞尔举行的两个研讨会来传播我们的成果。

Nonviolent resistance against authoritarian regimes has received renewed public and academic interest in recent years. Several studies have confirmed that nonviolent strategies are efficacious in bringing about political change. However, the long-term impact of nonviolent resistance on the consolidation of democracy has not been studies thus far. This project aims to address this lacuna. We were able to show in a preliminary analysis that democracies which were installed after nonviolent resistance had a significantly higher rate of survival over time than other democracies. We wish to investigate the link between nonviolent resistance and democratic consolidation further by using a mixed-method research design. On the quantitative side, we expand our preliminary study by analyzing whether the mode of resistance impacts not just the survival of democracy, but also its quality. We test this proposition using different measures of democratic consolidation and different methods, to also control for possible selection bias. On the qualitative side, we, in collaboration with a team from the Berghof Foundation, will conduct six case studies of African and Latin American democracies to identify the causal mechanisms through which nonviolent resistance transmits its effects. From each region, we select three stable democracies, of which one each was installed after nonviolent resistance, violent resistance or without public resistance in order to compare the causal effects of different modes of resistance and transition. Data for the African cases will be collected during fieldfwork. For the Latin American cases, we can draw on previously collected data of the Berghof Foundation so that these case studies can be conducted as desk research. In this way, the project will contribute towards a theory of resistance and political change. By controlling for potential selection bias, it also provides additional information about the situations under which resistance movements emerge. At the end of the project, we will integrate our results into the existing body of theory to provide a new summary of the "state of the art". In order to make our research relevant for practitioners, the Berghof Foundation will disseminate our results via their publication series, training materials and through two workshops in Berlin and Brussels.