The Mathematical and Philosophical Foundations of Probability

我们在哪里发现不确定性就在哪里发现概率：几乎在我们生活中的任何地方。概率对几乎所有技术都至关重要。高风险决策通常是基于概率判断和风险评估做出的，例如，在工程、医学、农业、环境管理、城市规划、公共政策、公共卫生、法律和国防领域。其中一些决策是因为对概率的估计不准确而做出的，1986年航天飞机灾难就是明证。我们目前使用概率的方法是不够的。这个项目将作出重要贡献的集体企业，提高我们的概率及其无数的应用程序的理解。

We find probability wherever we find uncertainty: virtually everywhere in our lives. Probability is essential to almost every technology. High-stakes decisions are routinely made on the basis of probability judgments and risk assessment-for example, in engineering, medicine, agriculture, environmental management, urban planning, public policy, public health, the law, and in our national defence. And some of those decisions have been made badly because of poor probability estimates-witness the 1986 space shuttle disaster. Our current methodologies for using probability are inadequate. This project will make an important contribution to the collective enterprise of enhancing our understanding of probability and its myriad applications.