An integrated approach for the conservation of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris) under climate change: linking remote sensing, species distribution modelling and population models

快速的全球变化给生态学家和保护生物学家提出了巨大的挑战，他们努力理解和预测气候引起的变化对生物多样性的影响。物种，特别是哺乳动物对气候引起的变化的脆弱性可能很大，因为哺乳动物的反应能力可能会被气候变化所超越。除了气候变化之外，其他多重威胁，如栖息地丧失和碎片化，以及干扰制度的改变和它们之间的相互作用，都可能对物种的生存产生不利影响。在这个项目中，我将评估气候变化和其他多重威胁对位于印度喜马拉雅山麓的Terai Arc Landscape(TAL)中两种标志性大型哺乳动物--亚洲象(Eepas Max Us)和老虎(Panthera Tgris)--的空间分布和生存的影响。这两个物种一直是亚洲森林生物多样性的关键物种，引起了全世界的保护关注。我将使用一种综合的混合建模方法，将遥感、物种分布模型(SDMS)和空间上明确的种群动力学模型联系起来。然后，我将调查我的预测对于各种不确定因素的敏感性。更具体地说，我将(1)为这两个不同的关键物种开发SDMS，以预测它们当前的分布和气候变化预测，(2)开发混合SDM-种群模型，以评估多种威胁(气候变化、栖息地丧失和碎片化、猎物枯竭)对物种生存的相对和综合影响，(3)评估SDMS产生的不确定性，人口参数的不确定性，以及在单一建模框架下的气候变化预测，以及(4)设计有效的多物种(即大象和老虎)保护战略，并促进跨物种范围的协调规划。我将基于2002年至2010年在TAL西部可获得的大象群体、年龄和性别结构的广泛数据集，为大象实施SDMS和种群模型。老虎杂交模型将基于现有的SDMS、扩散模型和其他关于种群动态的现有知识。量化不确定性的来源并了解其如何随所研究物种的变化而变化，特别是对不同的重点保护物种而言，对于为政策制定者制定综合管理选择至关重要。这项研究采用的跨学科视角整合了动物生态学、景观生态学、遥感和计算建模的技术和知识，旨在促进对这一新兴的(混合)SDM种群建模框架的发展和不确定性方面的关键探讨。它将侧重于气候变化和土地利用变化对大型哺乳动物在人类主导的景观中的空间分布和生存的影响。

Rapid global change poses grand challenges to ecologists and conservation biologists in their efforts to understand and predict the consequences of climate-induced changes on biodiversity. The vulnerability of species, especially of mammals, to climate-induced changes can be extensive as the response capacity of mammals may likely be surpassed by climate change. Besides climate change other multiple threats such as habitat loss and fragmentation and altered disturbance regimes and interactions between them can have adverse effects on species survival. In this project I will assess the impacts of climate change and other multiple threats on the spatial distribution and survival of two emblematic large mammals, Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and tiger (Panthera tigris), in the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL), located along the Himalayan foothills of India. These two species have been served as keystone species to generate worldwide conservation attention for Asian forest biodiversity. I will use an integrated hybrid modelling approach that links remote sensing, species distribution models (SDMs) and spatially explicit, population dynamics models. I will then investigate the sensitivity of my predictions with respect to various sources of uncertainty. More specifically, I will (1) develop SDMs for the two contrasting keystone species to predict their current distributions and that under climate change projections, (2) develop hybrid SDM - population models to assess the relative and combined effects of multiple threats (climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation, prey depletion) on species viability, (3) assess the uncertainties resulting from SDMs, uncertainty in demographic parameters, and climate change projections under a single modelling framework, and (4) design effective multispecies (i.e, elephant and tiger) conservation strategies and promote coordinated planning across the ranges of species. I will implement SDMs and population models for elephants based on an extensive dataset of elephant groups, age and sex structure available from 2002 to 2010 in the western part of TAL. The tiger hybrid model will be based on already existing SDMs, a dispersal model and other available knowledge on population dynamics. Quantifying the sources of uncertainty and understanding how it changes with species under study, especially for different keystone species of conservation concern is essential to develop integrated management options for policy makers. The inter-disciplinary perspective adopted by this study that integrates techniques and knowledge from animal ecology, landscape ecology, remote sensing and computational modelling is aimed at contributing to critical enquiry into the development and uncertainty aspects of this emerging (hybrid) SDM-population modelling framework. It will focus on the impacts of climate change and land-use change on the spatial distribution and survival of large mammals in human-dominated landscapes.