Modelling Retirement Decisions with Incomplete Rationality - Insights for Policy Design

长期以来，自愿和强制性养老金储蓄一直是老龄化经济学的核心。人口结构的变化和寿命的延长强化了这一领域的政治相关性，因为波兰和德国的强制现收现付计划面临财政压力。通过增加私人融资养老保障的重要性，政府已将重点从传统的固定收益养老金计划转向固定缴款计划。以私人储蓄为基础的制度，例如固定缴款计划，要求个别工人认识到，要维持退休期间的生活水平，就必须大量增加同期储蓄。许多固定缴款计划所包含的财务风险及其部分自愿性质都可能导致固定缴款计划的养恤金结果存在重大差异。最终做出的投资决定可能不仅取决于风险规避和金融知识，还取决于传统上由心理学家分析的人格特征，但迄今为止在养老金制度分析中基本上仍然缺席。这个项目的目标是用三种方法来克服文献中的差距。首先，我们将利用个人层面的调查数据，实证分析人格特质（大五种、控制点、风险厌恶）与私人储蓄和投资决策之间的关系。此外，我们计划评估不同水平的金融知识如何影响储蓄。其次，我们将检验消费/储蓄的跨期配置与消费/休闲的跨期配置受相同机制支配的隐含假设。根据文献，我们假设了传递性，并利用退休时间的数据对其进行了实证检验。第三，这两个组成部分将嵌套在具有自愿私人储蓄和金融知识的重叠代（OLG）模型中，以分析退休时间、总体储蓄和长期宏观经济稳定性之间的相互作用。我们认为，税收激励计划可以帮助克服私人自愿储蓄不足的问题，从而提高福利。

Voluntary and mandatory pension savings have been lying at the core of the economics of aging for a long time. Demographic change and increased longevity reinforce the political relevance of this field is by putting financial strains on mandatory pay as you go schemes in both Poland and Germany. By increasing the importance of privately financed old-age provisions, governments have shifted the focus from the traditional defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution plans. Systems based on private savings such as defined contribution schemes, require individual workers recognition that maintaining living standards during retirement necessitates a substantial increase in contemporaneous savings. Both the financial risks entailed in many defined contribution plans and their partial voluntary nature are likely to generate significant heterogeneity in pension outcomes of defined contribution plans. The investment decisions finally made may not only depend on risk aversion and financial literacy, but also on personality traits that have traditionally been analyzed by psychologists, but have so far remained largely absent from pension system analyses. The objective of this project is to overcome the gaps in the literature using three approaches. First, we will empirically analyze the relationship between personality traits (Big Five, locus of control, risk aversion) and private saving and investment decisions using person-level survey data. Moreover, we plan to assess how different levels of financial literacy affect savings. Second, we will test the implicit assumption that the intertemporal allocation of consumption/savings is ruled by the same mechanism as the intratemporal allocation of consumption/leisure. Following the literature, we posit the transitivity property and test it empirically using data on the timing of retirement. Third, both these components will be nested in an overlapping generations (OLG) model with voluntary private savings and financial literacy, to analyze the interplay between the timing of retirement, overall savings and long-run macroeconomic stability. We posit that a tax incentivizing scheme can help to overcome the problem of insufficient private voluntary savings, thus enhancing welfare.