Causal effects of wage subsidies on labor supply and labor demand

德国劳动力市场的特点是一般工资补贴，支持超过750万人，条件是每月收入不超过450欧元的门槛。补贴的既定目标是为失业工人重返劳动力市场提供垫脚石，为难以安置的工人创造就业机会，减少次要工作的兼职和官僚作风。补贴的广泛使用表明，它对雇主和工人在经济上具有吸引力。与此同时，我们对该工具是否有效地实现其目标，它是否具有有害的副作用，以及它是否将劳动力市场挤出劳动力市场，而劳动力市场的劳动力供应被补贴劳动力取代，我们知之甚少。拟议的项目通过调查微型就业工具对劳动力供应和劳动力需求的因果影响来解决这些开放的问题。更具体地说，(1)我们研究了真正的国家依赖是否将已婚配偶与补贴形式的迷你就业联系在一起。考虑到已婚夫妇所得税中隐含的激励措施，这是一种看似合理的情景。我们使用来自德国社会经济小组的数据，并估计动态多项Logit模型来解决这个问题。我们研究(2)参与微型就业是否真的为失业工人提供了一块垫脚石。我们应用丰富的行政数据(SIAB)来确定倾向得分匹配框架内的因果治疗效果，并分别研究先前失业者的过渡模式。最后，(3)我们询问当补贴的就业类型改变价格时，雇主是否以及如何调整其劳动力需求模式。在这里，我们利用大量的行政和基于调查的公司层面的数据集(建立历史小组和建立小组)来描述一段时间的发展和劳动力需求构成，然后确定替代模式以及不同类型的就业(例如，迷你工作、全职或兼职)中成本变化对工人存量和流动的可能影响。三个子项目中的每一个都提出了原创性的研究问题，并应用适当的研究设计来提高知识水平，以创新的方式扩展国内和国际文献。拟议的项目得益于数据来源的可获得性，这些数据来源在样本大小、信息丰富性和可靠性方面在国际上都是杰出的。每个次级项目都具有社会和经济意义，而不仅仅是科学意义；研究目标可以在拟议的框架内实现，并利用已有的数据。

The German labor market features a general wage subsidy, which supports more than 7.5 million individuals conditional on not exceeding a monthly earnings threshold of 450 Euros. The stated objectives of the subsidy are to provide a stepping stone for unemployed workers to return to labor market and to generate employment opportunities for hard to place workers, to reduce moonlighting and bureaucracy for minor jobs. The broad utilization of the subsidy suggests that it is economically attractive for employers and workers. At the same time, we know little about whether the instrument is effective in reaching its objectives, whether it features harmful side effects, and whether it crowds workers out of the labor market whose labor supply is substituted by subsidized labor. The proposed project addresses these open issues by investigating the causal effect of the Minijob instrument on labor supply and labor demand. More specifically, (1) we study whether true state dependence ties married spouses to the subsidized forms of Minijob employment. Given the incentives implicit in married couples' income taxation, this is a plausible scenario. We use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and estimate dynamic multinomial logit models to address this question. We study (2) whether partaking in Minijob employment indeed generates a stepping stone for unemployed workers. We apply rich administrative data (SIAB) to identify causal treatment effects within a propensity score matching framework and separately study transition patterns for the previously unemployed. Finally, (3) we ask whether and how employers adjust their labor demand patterns when subsidized types of employment change prices. Here, we take advantage of vast administrative and survey based firm level datasets (Establishment History Panel and Establishment Panel) to describe the developments and labor demand compositions over time and then to identify substitution patterns and possible effects of cost changes on worker stocks and flows in different types of employment (e.g., Minijob, full-time or part-time).Each of the three subprojects proposes original research questions and applies appropriate research designs to advance the level of knowledge and to extend the national and international literature in innovative ways. The proposed projects benefit from the availability of data sources, which are internationally outstanding in terms of sample size, richness of information, and reliability. Each subproject is socially and economically relevant beyond mere scientific interest; the research objectives can be achieved in the proposed framework and with data that is already available.