豪雨による複合災害の伝播経路分析・予測手法の高精度化

主要成果之一是建立了用于雨致灾害机制风险分析和预测的非线性单元模型。风险的概率分析基于构建的复杂网络图，该网络图表示偶然因素与空间特征之间的相互依赖关系。然后根据计算的风险概率和雨致灾害的影响进行预测。因此，基于非线性和单元模型的另一个重要成果是能够确定一个地区的总体危害水平，这有助于预测雨致灾害的时间序列变化效应和相应的随时间变化的动力学行为。

One of the main achievements is a nonlinear and cell modeling for the risk analysis and prediction on the mechanisms of rain-induced disasters. Risks are analyzed in terms of probabilities, which are based on the constructed complex network graphs that represent the interdependencies between casual factors and spatial characteristics. Prediction is then based on the calculated risk probabilities and the impacts of the rain-induced disasters. Therefore, based on the nonlinear and cell modeling, another important achievement is that the overall hazard level of an area is able to determine, which is useful to forecast the time-series changing effects and the corresponding time-dependent dynamics behavior from rain-induced disasters.