Urban shoreline amplification of storm surge during extreme tropical cyclones: Current and future flood risks

复杂的城市海岸线可以以不同于自然海岸的方式放大极端热带气旋造成的风暴潮。这项研究的目的是确定放大风暴潮的主要属性，更好地了解城市沿海社区面临的当前和未来的洪水风险。目前正在开发一个高分辨率风暴潮模型，并将其与一个大型集合气候数据集相结合，以量化城市洪水风险的变化。该研究分建模和模拟两个主要阶段进行，第一阶段（模型开发）的工作在两名国际专家的协助下于2022财年继续进行。一个原型的空间灵活的有限差分数值方案被用来调查的作用水深在大坂湾城市风暴潮放大。第二阶段（集合模拟）的平行工作于二零二二财年继续进行。利用2021财政年度生成的数据集，分析极端热带气旋事件的变化及其对目标地区沿海洪灾的影响。该项目的研究成果在国内和国际场合进行了展示。于2022财政年度初在日本举办了一次国际会议，以促进对研究主题的讨论并鼓励国际合作。会议包括国内和国际发言人，无论是早期的职业生涯和建立。此外，在为期三个月的讲习班期间，在数学和统计创新研究所（美国）和芝加哥的阿贡国家实验室（美国）介绍了第二阶段的结果。

Complex urban shorelines can amplify storm surge from extreme tropical cyclones in ways that are different from natural coasts. The purpose of this research is to identify main properties that amplify storm surge and better understand present and future flood risks that urban coastal communities face. A high-resolution storm surge model is being developed and coupled with a large-ensemble climate dataset in order to quantify changes in urban flood risk. This research is being conducted in two main phases: modeling and simulation.Work on Phase 1 (model development) continued in FY2022 with the assistance of two international experts. A prototype with a spatially-flexible finite difference numerical scheme was used to investigate the role bathymetry plays in urban storm surge amplification in Osaka Bay. Parallel work on Phase 2 (ensemble simulation) continued in FY2022. A dataset generated in FY2021 was used to analyze changes in extreme tropical cyclone events and how they might affect coastal flooding in the target areas.Research results from this project were presented at both domestic and international venues. An international conference session was organized in Japan in early FY2022 to facilitate discussion on the research topic and to encourage international collaboration. The conference included domestic and international speakers, both early-career and established. In addition, results of Phase 2 were presented at the Institute for Mathematical and Statistical Innovation (USA) during a three-month workshop, and at Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago (USA).