RAPID: Revisiting the compounding storm surge and extreme precipitation events on coastal flooding during hurricane Florence using field data

2018年9月，飓风佛罗伦萨给卡罗莱纳州造成了严重破坏，带来了毁灭性的强降雨(20-40英寸)，创纪录的海水风暴潮，以及随之而来的沿海洪水，据报道洪水深度高达6英尺。影响包括对周围地区的重大破坏和一些与飓风有关的死亡。北卡罗来纳州威尔明顿市被来自开普福里河的历史性洪水完全切断。南卡罗来纳州海岸线的人口稠密和发展继续使南卡罗来纳州的社区非常容易受到这些季节性飓风事件引发的沿海洪水的影响。与飓风有关的洪灾事件的主要原因是由极端大风引起的沿海风暴潮和/或易发洪水的脆弱地区出现集中和极端降水。在洪水事件期间，易腐烂的数据，如高水位标志，是洪水期间最高水位的潜在证据，它们为理解极端洪水事件提供了宝贵的数据。在这项研究中，将通过实地访问从这些易腐烂的数据中获得有价值的信息。这项研究项目的总体目标是访问沿海水浸地点，以调查(A)极端降雨的不同时空尺度的天气预报的可靠性，以及(B)极端降雨和风暴潮的联合概率，以洞察飓风情景下洪水风险的增加。这项研究项目旨在积累数据，以便利益攸关方能够改进他们目前的设计标准，以应对未来的洪灾。PI还期望(C)利用观察和收集的易腐烂数据来制定统计建模框架，以生成空间风险图，并查明重要的沿海基础设施在复合事件方面的关键脆弱性。这些信息对于维护沿海基础设施网络和在极端事件期间提供警报至关重要。这一研究项目将增进有关极端降雨和风暴潮对沿海洪灾的影响以及此类事件对环境可持续性的潜在影响的知识。通过记录易腐烂的数据，该研究项目提供了一个极好的机会来研究两个极端天气事件在多个地点的复合影响，并估计这类事件相对于历史时期的重现期。研究结果将用于制定策略，以提高利益相关者对复合极端事件的认识，将洪水影响降至最低。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

During September 2018, Hurricane Florence wreaked havoc in the Carolinas with devastating heavy rainfall (20-40 inches), record sea-water storm surges, and consequent coastal flooding with reported inundation depths of as high as 6 feet. The impacts included major damage to the surrounding region and a number of hurricane-related deaths. The city of Wilmington, NC entirely was cut off by historic flooding from the Cape Fear River. The dense population and development along its coastline continues to leave South Carolina communities highly vulnerable to coastal flooding from these seasonal hurricane events. The major causes of hurricane-related flooding events are the coastal storm surge caused by extreme winds and/or the occurrence of concentrated and extreme precipitation within vulnerable, flood prone areas. During flooding events, perishable data, such as high-water marks, are potential evidence of the highest water levels during a flood and they provide valuable data for understanding extreme flood events. In this study, valuable information will be obtained from such perishable data through field visits. The overall objective of this research project is to visit the locations of coastal flooding to investigate (a) the reliability of the weather forecast in terms of different spatio-temporal scales for extreme rainfalls, and (b) the joint probability of extreme rainfall and storm surge to gain insight into an increase in flood risk under hurricane scenarios. This research projects aims to amass data with which stakeholders can improve their current design standards for future flooding preparedness. The PI also expects (c) to utilize observed and collected perishable data in developing a statistical modeling framework both to generate spatial risk maps and to identify critical vulnerabilities of important coastal infrastructure regarding compound events. Such information is critical for maintaining coastal infrastructure networks and for providing alerts during extreme events. This research project will advance knowledge about the influence of extreme rainfall and storm surge on coastal flooding as well as the potential impact of such events on environmental sustainability. By documenting perishable data, the research project provides an excellent opportunity to study the compounding effect of two extreme weather events at multiple locations and to estimate the return period for such events with respect to historical periods. The research results will be used to develop strategies for improving awareness about compound extreme events amongst stakeholders to minimize flooding impacts.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.