Ecological Calendars and Climate Adaptation in the Pamirs

山区社区对温室气体浓度上升的贡献最小，但却面临着气候多变性增加的最严重影响。适应“新常态”是必要的，这些社区必须为更广泛的可能条件做好准备。根据IPCC第五次评估报告，迫切需要有能力预测气候变化在地方一级的影响。社区必须加强预测能力，使粮食生产与日益不稳定的天气模式同步。根据当地对季节性生物气象事件的了解制定的生态日历可用于预测和应对气候变化。历史上，在帕米尔山脉，农牧社区制定了“人体日历”，使其多样化的农业活动与多变的天气系统同步。到了世纪，生态历法被一些国家的政府所压制，不再使用。现在，这些基于文化和生态的日历为适应气候变化提供了新的希望。帕米尔山脉从阿富汗的巴达赫尚和塔吉克斯坦延伸，东到中国的公古尔山，北到吉尔吉斯斯坦的外阿莱。帕米尔山脉具有丰富的生物多样性和文化多样性。这些山区社会的粮食系统正在遭受严重的气候影响。我们的研究将有助于通过振兴日历帕米尔社区的预期能力。利用参与性研究，我们将通过将土著知识与气候和物候数据的科学分析相结合，重新校准历史和现有的生态日历。该项目将提供一个概念验证，用于地球仪各地的山区社会，最终将举行一次关于建立社区应对气候变化能力的生态日历的国际会议。会议将包括社会和生物物理科学家、政策制定者和民间社会领导人，他们将与土著山区社区进行尊重的接触。

Mountain communities, which contribute least to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, are facing the harshest impacts of increasing climate variability. Adapting to a "new normal" is a necessity, and these communities must prepare for a broader range of possible conditions. According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, the ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change at the local scale is an urgent need. Communities must strengthen anticipatory capacity to synchronize their food production with increasingly inconsistent weather patterns. Ecological calendars based on indigenous knowledge of seasonal biometeorological events may be used to anticipate and respond to climate variability. Historically in the Pamir Mountains, agro-pastoral communities developed "calendars of the human body" to synchronize their diverse agricultural activities with highly variable weather systems. In the 20th century, ecological calendars were suppressed by some governments and fell out of use. Now, these culturally and ecologically grounded calendars offer new hope as a way to adapt to climate change. The Pamir Mountains extend from Badakhshan Afghanistan and Tajikistan, east to China's Kongur Shan, and north into the Trans Alai of Kyrgyzstan. The Pamir Mountains are rich in biological and cultural diversity. These mountain societies are experiencing dramatic climate impacts on their food systems. Our research will contribute to the anticipatory capacity of Pamiri communities by revitalizing calendars. Using participatory research, we will recalibrate historical and existing ecological calendars by integrating indigenous knowledge with scientific analyses of climate and phenological data. The project will provide a proof-of-concept to be applied in mountain societies across the globe, culminating in an international conference on ecological calendars for building community resilience to climate change. The conference will include social and biophysical scientists, policy makers, and civil society leaders in respectful engagement with indigenous mountain communities.