Modelling gap dynamics, succession, and disturbance regimes of mangrove forests

红树林提供了重要的服务。然而，它们的功能还没有完全被理解。造成林隙和更大开阔斑块的干扰推动了林隙的动态，但尚不清楚这种林隙动态如何与其他生物和非生物驱动因素相互作用，包括资源梯度、资源利用效率、邻里竞争、种子可获得性以及导致树木死亡的不同原因。为了分析这些过程，我们将使用两种类型的空间显式模拟模型：i)1-10公顷尺度上成熟的红树林模型猕猴桃，以及ii)将在更大尺度(10-1000公顷)上开发的基于网格的模型。猕猴桃已经被参数化为新世界红树林，这是由三个物种主导的，它将被参数化为旧世界红树林，其中包括10个或更多树种。将考虑生长条件的纬度梯度以及冬季温度、洪水状况、飓风频率和/或强度的长期变化。模拟结果将与在不同尺度和层次上观察到的时间、空间和森林组织的经验模式进行比较。这项研究将为保护红树林生态系统提供的服务的海岸稳定和绿化带恢复提供重要的科学基础。

Mangrove forests provide important services. Their functioning, however, has not been fully understood. Disturbances, that create gaps and larger open patches, drive their dynamics but it is unclear how this gap dynamics interacts with other biotic and abiotic drivers including resource gradients, resource use efficiency, neighbourhood competition, seed availability, and different causes of tree mortality. In order to analyse these processes, we will use two types of spatially explicit simulation models: i) the well-established mangrove model KiWi at scales of 1-10 ha, and ii) a grid-based model to be developed for larger scales (10-1000 ha). KiWi has been parameterized for new world mangrove forests, which are dominated by three species, and it will be parameterized for old world mangrove forests, which include ten or more tree species. Latitudinal gradients in growth conditions will be considered as well as long term changes in winter temperature, inundation regime, and frequency and/or intensity of hurricanes. The simulation results will be compared with empirical patterns in time, space, and forest organization observed at different scales and hierarchical levels. This study will significantly contribute to the scientific basis for coastal stabilization and restoration of green belts preserving the services provided by mangrove ecosystems.