気候変動に伴う河川生態系のリスク評価：統計モデルとメソコスム実験の融合

该项目前三年收集的数据用于研究时空尺度在驱动河流温度与环境和景观预测因子之间关系中的作用。这些结果随后被应用于研究由火山地质支持的泉水流在当代和未来条件下作为无脊椎动物和鱼类的冷避难所的作用。在这一年中，这项工作编写了两篇论文并提交给国际同行评审期刊。这项工作在生态与土木工程学会年会上发表。2020年在北海道大学Tomakomai实验森林进行的实验结果发表在国际同行评审期刊《全球变化生物学》（影响因子13.21）上。这项与爱尔兰三一学院（Trinity College）的研究人员合作进行的研究表明，热浪对溪流藻类和无脊椎动物的影响取决于捕食者（鱼类）的存在。这些结果强调了物种灭绝在放大气候变化的生态影响方面的潜在作用。今年，中国科学院水生生物研究所又发表了两篇合作论文：一篇是测试变暖和营养物污染对淡水浮游动物营养相互作用影响的实验（全球变化生物学，IF 13.21）；(2)中国中部地区生态系统修复项目有效性的元分析（水利研究，IF 13.4）。

Data collected over the three first years of the project was used to investigate the role of temporal and spatial scale in driving relationships between stream temperatures and environmental and landscape predictors. These results were then applied to examine the role of spring-fed streams supported by volcanic geology as cold refugia for invertebrate and fish species under contemporary and future conditions.Two papers were prepared and submitted to international peer review journals from this work during the year. This work was presented at the annual meeting of the Ecology and Civil Engineering Society.Results from the experiment conducted at the Hokkaido University Tomakomai Experimental Forest during 2020 were published in the international, peer-reviewed journal Global Change Biology (impact factor 13.21). This research, conducted in collaboration with researchers from Trinity College (Ireland), showed that effects of heatwaves on stream algae and invertebrates are dependent on the presence of predators (fish). These results highlight the potential role of species extinctions in amplifying the ecological impacts of climate change.Two more collaborative papers lead by the Institute of Hydrobiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences were published this year: an experiment to test the effects of warming and nutrient pollution on trophic interactions of freshwater zooplankton (Global Change Biology, IF 13.21); and (2) a meta-analysis of the effectiveness of ecosystem restoration projects in central China (Water Research, IF 13.4).