Marine Isotope Stage 11 in the eastern Mediterranean Sea: Nearest analog to the present day?

海洋同位素第11阶段(MIS11)，大约40万年前，在地球围绕太阳运行的S轨道的构型以及由此产生的太阳辐射强度和变化方面，提供了与全新世最接近的相似之处。因此，了解MIS11的气候将有助于评估人类对全球气候的影响和当前暖期的未来。地中海作为气候信号的放大器，通过北大西洋涛动对来自北方的强迫做出反应，通过热带辐合带的变化对来自南方的强迫做出反应。该地区记录MIS11气候不同方面的独特潜力从未被探索过。在这个项目中，我们将从地中海东部的ODP值和流星雨岩心生成第一个高分辨率的多代理记录，重建该地区跨MIS11的水文、气候和生态系统。我们的具体目标是研究MIS11期间的气候波动模式，以模拟全新世(MIS1)期间可能出现的情况，而不是人类叠印。我们还将确定这一类似于全新世的间冰期何时以及如何结束，以及是否可以根据前兆信号或事件预测进入新的冰河时代。我们的结果将有助于评估这一人口稠密地区未来气候变化的情景，对地中海国家的社会具有明显的好处。

Marine isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), some 400,000 years ago, provides the closest analog to the Holocene in terms of the configuration of the Earth¿s orbit around the Sun and the resulting strength and variability of solar insolation. Understanding the climate of MIS11 will thus aid in assessment of human impact on global climate and of the future of the present warm period. The Mediterranean acts as an amplifier of climate signals, responding to forcing from both the North, via the North Atlantic Oscillation and from the South, through shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This unique potential of the region to record different facets of MIS11 climate has never been explored. In this project, we will generate the first high-resolution multi-proxy records from eastern Mediterranean ODP and Meteor cores, reconstructing the hydrography, climate and ecosystems of the region across the MIS11. We specifically aim to study the pattern of climate fluctuation during MIS11 as an analog of what might have been expected during the Holocene (MIS1) without human overprint. We will also determine when and how this Holocene-like interglacial ended and whether the plunge into a new ice age could have been predicted from precursor signals or events. Our results will help in evaluating scenarios of future climate change in this densely populated region, with obvious benefits to society in Mediterranean countries.