Microsimulations on family and care

人口变化及其深远影响是最重要的社会发展和挑战之一。在这方面，一个已经明显可见的问题领域似乎是老年人的护理：越来越多的老年人特别受到护理需求的影响，他们面临着越来越少的年轻人，他们可以在专业上-以合格的护理专业的形式-以及在家庭中满足这些需求。后一种现象至关重要，因为今天有很大一部分依赖护理的人在家里得到支助和护理。为了以目标为导向的方式满足社会未来的护理需求，有必要将人口变化的动态、家庭生活计划的变化及其对预期护理潜力的影响联系起来，并根据经验进行稳健的预测。在区域具体情况的背景下，还需要产生一种小规模的预测能力，这种预测能力将能够科普真实的规划单元及其所有特点。该项目的目的是从家庭社会学的角度，在小面积估计和微观模拟的框架内实现这一目标，从而能够在未来的必需品以及护理潜力方面产生更好的规划可靠性。

One of the most important social developments and challenges can be described with regard to the demographic change and its far-reaching consequences. In this context, an already clearly visible problem area seems to be nursing care for elderly: an ever-growing number of elderly people, who are particularly affected by care needs, are facing an ever smaller number of younger people, who could meet these needs both professionally – in form of a qualified nursing profession – as well as within the family. The latter phenomenon is of central importance, since a large part of care-dependent people today are supported and cared for at home. To cover the future care needs of society in a goal-oriented manner, it is necessary to relate the dynamics of demographic changes, the changes in familial life plans as well as their consequences for the expected care potential and to predict it empirically robust. Against the background of regional specifics, it is further necessary to generate a small-scale predictive power, which will be able to cope with the real planning units and all their peculiarities. The purpose of the project is to achieve this from a family sociological perspective within the framework of small area estimation and microsimulation and as a consequence be able to generate better planning reliability with regard to future necessities but also potentials for care.