Modelling and Analysis of Reliability and Availability by stochastic modelling techniques considering continuously the statistical quality of the initial data

今天，技术系统的可靠性和可用性的建模和仿真进行了有效的方法。这些方法并不局限于特定的系统，并且能够对不同的方面进行建模。然而，可靠性和可用性的计算是基于平均值分布。计算数据基础的统计质量，即分布函数的置信水平，既不能纳入模型的输入数据，也不能在分析中考虑。因此，分析得到的结果也是平均值。通常，描述系统行为的信息是有限的，例如，系统故障时间的样本量是有限的。因此，有必要持续考虑输入数据的统计质量，即在可靠性和可用性分析中需要考虑输入数据的置信水平。因此，研究项目的目标是在整体方法中持续整合统计质量，即在建模和技术系统分析中不断考虑。这种通用计算和模拟方法的发展代表了一个实际相关的研究目标，并具有严肃的科学目的。该方法将建模方法的性能与置信水平的表现力相结合。它具有很高的潜力，可用于各种应用，例如可靠性的规划和分配，测试规划和一般可靠性和可用性值的演示，以及预测健康管理（PHM）给出的基于建模的故障诊断领域。实际的可靠性和可用性预测和验证程序的不确定性可以大大降低。在研究的最后，给出了一种新的Petri网类的方法。原型软件工程与MATLAB的工作，使新方法的第一个应用程序。此外，它们是新研究的基础。通过几个应用阐明了新方法对系统制造商的附加值。

Today, modeling and simulation of reliability and availability of technical systems are carried out with efficient methods. The methods are not restricted to specific systems and enable the modelling of different aspects. Nevertheless, the calculation of reliability and availability is based on mean value distributions. The statistical quality of the data basis of the calculations, i.e. the confidence levels of the distribution functions can neither be integrated into the input data of the models nor be considered within the analysis yet. Thus, the results earned by the analysis are mean values, too.Usually, limited information to describe the systems’ behaviour are given, e.g. limited sample sizes of failure times of the system. Hence, the continuously consideration of the statistical quality of the input data is necessary, i.e. the confidence level of the input data need to be considered within the analysis of reliability and availability.Therefore, objective of the research project is a continuously integration of the statistical quality within the holistic methodology, i.e. the continuously consideration within the modelling as well as within the analysis of technical systems. The development of such a universal calculation and simulation method represents a practically relevant research goal and has a serious scientific aim. The method combines the performance of the modelling methods with the expressiveness of confidence levels. It has a high potential to be used in varied applications, e.g. the planning and allocation of reliability, the test planning and the demonstration of general reliability and availability values as well as the area of modelling-based prognostics as given by the Prognostic Health Management (PHM). The uncertainty of actual reliability and availability prediction and demonstration procedures can be reduced significantly. A new quality of reliability and availability analysis can be achieved.At the end of the research project, a new methodology is given as a new Petri net class. Prototypical software engineering works with MATLAB enable a first application of the new method. Furthermore, they are the basis of new research. The added value of the new methodology for a system manufacturer are clarified by a few applications.