Developing improved social-ecological scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services in north temperate freshwater ecosystems over the next half century

在全球变化的背景下，预计风暴或热浪等极端事件的增加——在总体变暖趋势之上。我们将制定情景，以了解短期（热浪、风暴）和长期（气候变暖）干扰的重叠如何协调一致地影响北温带湖泊生态系统的生物多样性，以及对生态系统功能、恢复力和生态系统服务的影响。我们预测，短期极端天气的时间、强度和频率起着重要作用，因为类似强度的风暴可能会根据季节或湖泊的形态而产生不同的影响。这些情景建立在世界各地湖泊的经验年代际数据的基础上，时间分辨率为分钟(GLEON湖泊的自动原位测量；水温、氧气、chl。A，浊度)和每周到每月的分辨率（bbb34个北温带湖泊的浮游生物群落数据，非生物驱动因素，如温度，营养物质，光）。基于遥感数据（哨兵卫星图像；水温，叶绿素a），我们将测试全球湖泊的不稳定湖泊的频率如何随着全球变暖而增加。该项目将开发一种创新的方法框架，将预测淡水生态系统情景规划的集体（跨区域）方法与在设计实现淡水生态系统可持续性愿景的途径时考虑这些驱动因素的回溯情景规划相结合。该方法将应用于德国、瑞典和加拿大的个案研究。预期结果包括参与性情景过程的设计原则，以支持可持续利用淡水生态系统服务的转型学习，以及人类与淡水相互作用的特征，这些特征决定了在高度使用冲突和不确定性的情况下SES的复原力

In the context of global change an increase in extreme events such as storms or heatwaves is expected- on top of the general warming trends. We will develop scenarios to understand how the overlap of short-term (heat waves, Storms) and long-term (climate warming) disturbances act in concert affecting biodiversity of lake ecosystems in the north temperate zone in time and the consequences for ecosystem functioning, resilience and ecosystem services. We predict that the timing, magnitude and frequency of short-term extremes play an important role because e.g. storms of similar magnitude can have different effects depending on the season or the morphometry of a lake. The scenarios build on empirical decadal data from lakes across the world at temporal resolution of minutes (automatic in situ measurements from GLEON lakes; water temperature, oxygen, chl.a, turbidity) and weekly to monthly resolution ( > 34 north temperate lakes with data on plankton communities, abiotic drivers such temperature, nutrients, light). Based on remote sensing data (Sentinel satellite images; water temperature, chlorophyll a) we will test as to how the frequency of unstable lakes with respect to water clarity increase with global warming for lakes globally. The project will develop an innovative methodological framework that combines a collective (cross-regional) approach to forecasting scenario planning for freshwater ecosystems and a backcasting scenario planning that considers these drivers in the design of pathways towards a sustainability vision of freshwater ecosystems. The methodology will be applied in case studies in Germany, Sweden and Canada. Expected results include design principles for participatory scenario processes to support transformational learning towards sustainable use of freshwater ecosystem services and characteristics of human-freshwater interactions that determine the resilience of SES in situations of high use conflicts and uncertainties