CoralTrace – A new approach to understanding climate-induced reef crises

珊瑚礁可能是目前与气候有关的压力（CRS）最受威胁的海洋生态系统。现代珊瑚礁危机表现在大规模漂白频率增加，珊瑚钙化率降低和珊瑚死亡率升高。虽然造礁珊瑚的灭绝风险也很高，但珊瑚礁的衰退是由现有物种的碳酸钙净产量减少而不是灭绝或灭绝造成的。尽管如此，珊瑚礁的灭绝是一个主要的问题，因为这是不可逆转的，从而防止恢复珊瑚礁从CRS驱动的crisises.Using古生物学数据库和埃尔兰根古珊瑚礁数据库连同一个新的化石特征数据库灭绝的建礁者，该项目旨在揭示珊瑚礁随着时间的推移，个人的进化命运和整个生态系统的变化的相互作用。具体来说，我们测试三个主要的假设：（1）珊瑚礁比建礁物种更敏感的CRS。全球性的珊瑚礁危机可以在没有大规模灭绝的情况下发生，仅仅是因为碳酸钙的净产量减少了。这一假设的一个重要含义是，珊瑚礁危机可能是即将到来的生物多样性危机的预警信号。(2)造礁类群的造礁能力和灭绝风险都可以通过其特征来预测。虽然并非所有潜在相关的生活史特征都可以从化石中获得（例如，光共生体的性质），但生长形态和生境宽度等可再生特征已被证明与珊瑚灭绝风险和当今珊瑚礁生长相关。(3)中光和中纬度环境是珊瑚礁避难所和气候危机后恢复的适宜环境。假设检验将在多变量统计框架和机器学习中进行，重点是保存的珊瑚礁体积和灭绝作为因变量。独立变量，如幅度和持续时间的变暖，缺氧和酸化将采取从公布的来源和配套的TERSANE项目。测试将在特定时间段（二叠纪末、三叠纪末、侏罗纪早期）以及时间序列范围内进行。为了可行并与TERSANE的目标相关，CoralTrace将专注于二叠纪到新近纪的珊瑚礁系统。

Coral reefs are perhaps the most threatened marine ecosystems from current climate-related stressors (CRS). The modern reef crisis manifests itself in an increased frequency of mass-bleaching, reduced calcification rates of corals, and elevated coral mortalities. Although extinction risk is also high among reef-building corals, reef decline is driven by reduced net calcium carbonate production of existing species, rather than extirpation or extinction. Nevertheless, extinctions are a major concern, because these are irreversible and thus preventing the recovery of reefs from CRS-driven crises.Using the Paleobiology Database and the Erlangen PaleoReefs Database together with a new fossil trait database on extinct reef builders, this project aims to reveal the interplay of individualistic evolutionary fate and whole ecosystem changes in reefs over time. Specifically, we test three main hypotheses: (1) Reefs are more sensitive to CRS than reef building species. A global reef crisis can occur without mass extinction, simply because the net calcium carbonate production is reduced. An important implication of this hypothesis is that reef crisis may be an early warning sign of a forthcoming biodiversity crisis. (2) Both the reef-building capacity and the extinction risk of reef building taxa can be predicted from their traits. Although not all potentially relevant life-history traits can be derived from fossils (e.g., nature of photosymbionts), preservable traits such as growth morphology and habitat breadth have been shown to be correlated with coral extinction risk and reef growth today. (3) Mesophotic and mid-latitude environments are suitable environments for reefal refugia and recovery after climate induced crises. Hypothesis testing will be performed in a multivariate statistical framework and machine learning focussing on preserved reefal volume and extinction as dependent variables. Independent variables such as magnitude and duration of warming, anoxia and acidification will be taken from published sources and accompanying TERSANE projects. Tests will be conducted at the level of specific time slices (end-Permian, end-Triassic, early Jurassic) as well as in a time-series context. To be feasible and relevant to TERSANE’s goals, CoralTrace will focus on Permian to Neogene reef systems.