Can parasite evolution reinforce the effects of climate warming?

我们正在经历人类历史上前所未有的全球变化。未来的生态系统功能可能受到双重威胁，因为全球变暖（GW）不仅会产生直接的不利影响，而且还可能增加寄生虫感染的风险。人们普遍认为，GW将导致一个“更加病态的世界”，传染病的流行率和毒性都将增加。然而，这些预测是基于短期的高温实验暴露，因此忽略了寄生虫如何适应，即使（微）寄生虫倾向于快速进化。Paradapt填补了这一空白，测试寄生虫的进化是否可以加强预测的“世界变暖，因此生病”的情况。具体来说，我们将研究长期暴露于变暖是否会增加疾病的流行率和毒力，以及寄生虫分类的多样性。我们将量化的进化适应温度升高的有毒原生动物微寄生虫的模式浮游动物物种（水蚤），在性状水平，为了获得一个机械的理解，在基因组水平。我们将采用实验和自然进化的独特组合，阐明不同层次的可控性和生物相关性。Paradapt建立在波兰和德国合作伙伴的专业知识的互补性基础上：环境科学（PL）和疾病进化（DE）;实验室进化分析（DE）的实践经验以及复制的温暖和控制湖泊（PL）的独特系统。60年来，这些温暖的湖泊一直从发电厂系统接收温水，这导致实际GW情景中的温度升高。它们提供了一个独特的机会来观察对变暖世界的适应。Paradapt将为寄生虫适应在气候驱动的疾病出现中的作用提供广泛的见解。了解寄生虫的适应程度对于预测疾病在温暖世界中的传播至关重要。

We are experiencing global changes unprecedented in human history. Future ecosystem func-tioning might be under double threat, as global warming (GW) will not only have direct adverse effects but may also increase the risk of parasite infections. It is commonly believed that GW will result in a “sicker world”, with infectious diseases increasing in prevalence and virulence. These predictions, however, are based on short-term experimental exposures to elevated tempera-tures, and thus ignore how parasites may adapt even though (micro)parasites are predisposed to evolve rapidly. Paradapt fills this gap by testing whether parasite evolution can reinforce the predicted “warmer hence sicker world” scenario. Specifically, we will examine whether long-term exposure to warming increases disease prevalence and virulence, as well as parasite taxonomic diversity. We will quantify evolutionary adaptations to elevated temperatures in a virulent protozoan microparasite of a model zooplankton species (Daphnia), at the trait-level and, in order to gain a mechanistic understanding, at the genome-level. We will employ a unique combination of experimental and natural evolution, elucidating different levels of controllability and biological relevance. Paradapt builds on the complementarity of Polish and German partners’ expertise: environmental sciences (PL) and evolution of disease (DE); hands-on experience with laboratory evolutionary assays (DE) and a unique system of replicated warm and control lakes (PL). These warm lakes have been receiving warm water from power plant system for 60 years, which resulted in elevated temperatures within realistic GW scenarios. They offer a unique opportunity to observe adaptation to a warming world. Paradapt will provide broad insights into the role of parasite adaptation in climate-driven disease emergence. Understanding the extent to which parasites adapt is essential for predicting disease spread in a warmer world.