A RESEARCH OF POPULATION PROJECTION IN THE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC PLANNING

在1994财政年度，我把《联合国全面发展规划手册》翻译成日文。然后，在1995财政年度，我确定了以下作为审查手册的结果。该手册的目的是根据发展中国家的现状对方法进行概括。它包括为在规划中整合人口变量提供概念基础的材料。它是作为规划的概念框架提出的。该框架从对以经济增长为导向的规划的批判性重新审查中汲取思想。此外，它还包括描述各种投影技术的方法学章节。经济、社会和人口预测不是由综合规划模式作出的，而是由局部技术作出的。有关概念框架的论点是抽象的，因为联合国在手册中没有提出似乎更符合综合发展规划的一般模式的规划框架。如果由联合国提出，联合国的主张，即在规划中假定社会和经济发展的一个主要目标是达到更高的生活水平，就会变得更加明确。人口投影技术的推广已接近完成阶段，但并不一定符合实际的投影可能性。如果联合国从初步预测和计划预测的角度，从对人口因素的回顾性估计到其未来假设的角度，提出说明性的例子，那么联合国手册的效用应该是很大的。此外，我还提到了在我国的社会和经济规划中应考虑的问题。1)联合国，《将人口变数纳入发展规划的预测方法》，第一卷：综合规划方法，模组1（1989）、模组2（1990）、模组3（1993）。少

In the 1994 fiscal year, I translated the United Nations'manual for the comprehensive development planning ^<1)> into Japanese. Then, in the 1995 fiscal year, I ascertained the following as a result of the examination of the manual.The manual is oriented toward generalization of the methodology based on the present conditions in the developing countries. It includes materials providing the conceptual basis for integrating demographic variables in the planning. It is presented as a conceptual framework for the planning. The framework draws ideas from the critical re-examinations of ecnomic growth-oriented planning. In addition, it consists of the methodological chapters describing various projection techniques. The economic, social and demographic projections are not made by the comprehensive planning models but partial techniques.The concerned argument on the conceptual framework is abstract, because the United Nations doesn't present the planning framework in the manual that seems to … More conform with the general model of the comprehensive development planning. If the United Nations presented it, the assertion of the United Nations, that is to say, the planning assuming that a primary objective of social and economic development is the attainment of higher standards of living, could become more clear.The generalization of population projection technique is close to the complete stage, but it doesn't necessarily correspond to the actual projection possibility. And the utility of the United Nations' manual should be of great, if the United Nations presented illustrative examples from the viewpoint of the preliminary projection and the plan projection, from the retrospective estimations of demographic factors to their future assumptions. Furthermore, I referred the points which should be taken into consideration in the social and economic planning of our country.1) United Nations, Projection Methods for Integrating Population Variables into Development Planning, Volume I : Methods for Comprehensive planning, Module 1 (1989), Module 2 (1990), Module 3 (1993). Less