Predicting the future: testing a unitary account of judgment under uncertainty.

这项研究使用创新的技术来研究人们如何在结果不确定的情况下使用多种信息来源来做出判断。这种基本能力是我们生活中许多方面的一个关键特征，因此，了解其中涉及的基本机制具有相当大的潜力，可以提高各种环境中的判断和决策技能。这些措施包括经济预测、预测消费者行为、了解和纠正赌博行为，以及改善教育培训。此外，这项研究将发表在提高澳大利亚科学声誉的国际期刊上，该项目的实施将为学生提供有价值的研究培训。

The research uses innovative techniques to examine how people use multiple sources of information to make judgments in situations when the outcomes are uncertain. This basic ability is a key feature of many aspects of our lives, thus understanding the fundamental mechanisms involved has considerable potential to improve judgment and decision-making skills across a range of environments. These include, economic forecasting, predicting consumer behaviour, understanding and rectifying gambling behaviour, and improving educational training. In addition, the research will be published in international journals enhancing the reputation of Australian science, and conduct of the project will provide valuable research training for students.