Study of Dynamic Processes of Infrastructure Planning Corresponding to the Population Changes in Quantity and Quality

由于生育率下降，日本人口迅速减少。从资源配置的角度看，人口减少本身不存在问题。在过渡阶段可能会出现经济和/或社会压力。人口数量也在发生质的变化。劳动力的减少改变了生产以及对商品和服务的需求。另一方面，发展中国家人口增长和生活水平提高导致的化石燃料消费增加，对整个世界来说是更重要的问题。这就是为什么在这项研究的标题中包含了“人口数量和质量的变化”，而不是“出生率下降和人口老龄化”的原因。“城市结构分析”和“动态分析”是其他主要关键词。在日本传统的城市规划和土地规划中，假设经济增长，目标是最大化社会福利。今后要把重点放在质量和选择性退出上。本研究旨在对适用于人口下降情况的分析和评估技术进行全面研究。它们与这三个关键字中的任何一个都相关。在对空间进行建模的基础上，对九篇论文进行了分类，共分为三章。它们是(1)城市人口变化分析，(2)区域人口变化动态分析模型，(3)离散空间时空分析模型。另一章由两篇论文组成，从原创性的角度对出生率下降和老龄化问题进行了分析。人口的数量和质量变化是土地开发方案和宏观经济中的重要主题。我们将继续进行多方向的研究，以期得到更有用的结果。

A rapid population decrease happens in Japan as a result of the fertility decline. There is no problem in population decrease itself from the viewpoint of the resource allocation. Econom ical and/or social strains may occur in the transitional phase. The population is changing qualitatively, too. A decrease in labor force alters production and demands for goods and services. On the other hand, the increase in fossil fuel consumption, which caused by population growth and improving living standards in developing countries, is more important issue for the entire world. This is the reason why a phrase "quantitative and qualitative change in the population" is included in the title of this research instead of a phrase "declining birthrate and an aging population". "City structural analysis" and "dynamics analysis" are other main keywords. In traditional urban planning and land planning in Japan, assuming economic growth, the goal was maximizing social welfare. We should focus on quality and selective withdrawal in the future. This study aimed at a comprehensive study on analysis and evaluation techniques appropriate for the situation of population decline.This research report includes 11 theoretical or empirical articles. They are related with any of the three keywords. We classified the nine thesis based on modeling the space, and composed three chapters of them. These are (1) analysis of changes in the urban population, (2) dynamic analysis model of regional population change, and (3) a spatiotemporal analysis of discrete-space model. Another chapter is composed of two papers in which the falling birthrate and aging are analyzed from original aspects. Quantitative and qualitative changes in the population are the theme that is important in both the land development program and the macroeconomics. We are going to continue a multidirectional study aiming at more useful result.