Construction of Epidemiological Model for Periodontal Disease

本研究的目的是用比值比来确定牙周病的危险因素。1997年在新泻市对599名70岁和162名80岁的老年人进行了基线调查。多因素Logistic回归分析显示，年龄、性别、有牙数、补牙数、桥基牙数与牙周病严重程度有显著相关性。在纵向研究中，与牙周疾病进展显著相关的变量包括基线时的最大牙周袋深度和附着体丢失，上下磨牙，可摘局部义齿的填充牙和基牙，通过问卷调查获得性别，吸烟和饮酒习惯，同时调查血清疾病标志物水平，临床记录附着体水平。对于牙周病进展的评估，如果一个或多个部位的探测附着水平增加了3mm或更多，则使用额外的附着丧失。共调查了394名受试者（208名男性和186名女性）。大约75%的受试者在两年内表现出额外的依恋丧失。在额外的附件丢失和吸烟以及基线时附件水平≥ 6mm之间发现了显著相关性，比值比分别为3.75和2.29。吸烟习惯和基线附着水平≥ 6mm可能是健康老年人进一步附着丧失的危险因素。

The Purpose of this research was to identify the risk factors for periodontal disease with odds ratio. Baseline survey was carried out on 599 persons aged 70-year-old and 162 persons aged 80-year-old in Niigata City in 1997. In cross sectional study, multiple logistic regression analysis showed variables that significant correlated to sever periodontal status were age, gender, number of teeth present, filled teeth, bridge abutment teeth. In longitudinal study, variables that significant correlated to periodontal disease progression were both maximum periodontal pocket depth and attachment loss at baseline, upper and lower molars, filled teeth and abutment teeth for removable partial denture.Gender, smoking and alcohol drinking habits were obtained using a questionnaire, while serum levels of disease markers were investigated and attachment levels were clinically recorded. For the assessment of periodontal disease progression, additional attachment loss was used if one or more sites had a 3mm or more increase in probing attachment level. Three hundred ninety four subjects(208 males and 186 females)were surveyed. Approximately 75 per cent of subjects exhibited additional attachment loss over a two-year period. Significant associations were found between additional attachment loss and smoking, and attachment level of 6mm or more at the baseline, with odds ratios of 3.75 and 2.29, respectively. Smoking habit and baseline attachment level of 6mm or more may be considered as risk factors for further attachment loss among healthy elderly people.