Optimal Behavior of International Investors, Economic Development, and Currency Crises

该研究提出了一个经济发展和国际资本流动的模型。在发展的早期阶段，投资是互补的，生产的回报是递增的。这在投资者之间创造了战略互补性，使低资本平衡和高资本平衡都成为可能。两个均衡之间的运动代表经济起飞和资本外逃。该模型显示了预期和风险如何通过改变多重均衡的结构来决定经济的最终均衡。在多重均衡的情况下，政府的作用是通过政策使均衡转换因素朝着正确的方向发展，从而达到高度均衡。随着经济的成功起飞，它进入了收益递减阶段，多重均衡不再存在。因此，政府的角色必须改变。

The study presents a model of economic development and international capital flows. In the early stage of development, investments are complementary and production exhibits increasing returns. This creates strategic complementarities among investors, which make both low and high capital equilibria possible. Movements between two equilibria represent economic takeoff and capital flight. The model shows how expectations and risks determine the final equilibrium of the economy by changing the structure of multiple equilibria. Given the multiple equilibria, the role of government is to achieve the high equilibrium through policies that affect equilibrium switching factors in the right directions. As the economy take off successfully, it enters the stage of decreasing returns where multiple equilibria no longer exist. Thus the role of government must change.