An application of multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism to environmental economics

可持续社会，如果有的话，需要有一种综合的方法办法，能够解决能源和矿产资源供应短缺和承载能力等各种制约因素的问题。我们一直致力于开发一种分析工具，名为“社会代谢的多尺度综合分析”(MSIASM)。这个工具是一种有效的工具，可以基于Salthe和Allen发展的理论生态学中研究的缩放思想，显式地分析所讨论的系统每个隔间的相互约束。该工具不仅考虑了系统不同组成部分之间的能量分配，而且还考虑了可用人力时间的分配。我们运用MSIASM方法对中国经济进行了分析。首先，我们将中国提出的各种“能量型劳动生产率”与OECD国家的“能量型劳动生产率”进行比较，考察中国经济的利弊。然后，我们基于几种不同的假设对人口和能源消费模式的结构变化进行了情景分析。我们已经在2005年6月在葡萄牙里斯本举行的欧洲生态经济学会国际会议上公布了我们的成果。我们的研究结果的一部分已提交给生态经济学，可能会发表。

Sustainable society, if any, requires to have an integrated methodological approach that can tackle the issues of various constraints such as supply shortage of energy and mineral resources and carrying capacity. We have been engaged in developing an analytical tool called as "Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal Metabolism" (MSIASM). This tool is an effective tool to explicitly analyze mutual constrains of each compartment of the system in question based on the idea of scaling that has been investigated within theoretical ecology developed by Salthe and Allen. This tool considers not only the distribution of energy among different component of the system, but also the distribution of available human time. We applied the MSIASM approach to the analysis of Chinese economy. First, we made comparison among various types of "energetic labor productivity" between China and OECD countries to investigate the pros and cons of Chinese economy. Then, we made a scenario analysis based on several different assumptions concerning the structural changes in both the population and energy consumption pattern. We have presented our results at the International Conference of European Society of Ecological Economics, held hi Lisbon, Portugal, June 2005. The part of our results is submitted to Ecological Economics for possible publication.