STUDY ON THE OPTIMAL SEQUENCING OF THE PARTNERS, TIMING AND FORMS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS OF JAPAN

本研究使用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型来模拟日本与东亚经济体自由贸易协定(FTA)的各种案例。基于对动态模型规范进行模拟的各种尝试，以及通过降低各国关税实现贸易自由化将给自己带来好处的共识：i)日本将农业排除在自贸协定之外将降低日本贸易伙伴的潜在利益，但日本的损失将是有限的；ii)如果日本、中国和韩国由于农业的共同弱点而形成自贸协定，将产生更大的负贸易转移效应；这将通过将自贸协定的成员扩大到东盟国家来克服。iii)日本在自贸协定中的豁免项目应该受到限制。否则，东亚范围内的自贸协定只会带来很小的好处。模拟表明，作为政策含义，日本应该扩大包括农业在内的自贸协定的覆盖范围，日本应该尽快签署自贸协定；日本应该从一开始就限制自贸协定的豁免项目。未来确定的研究领域包括：i)制定CGE模型的动态规范，并使递归动态模拟成为可能；ii)使模拟原产地规则的影响成为一个主要的政策关注领域。

This study uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate various cases of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) of Japan with East Asian economies. The optimal sequencing of the partners, timing and forms are the main areas to be examined.Based on the various attempts of simulation by testing dynamic model specifications, the following three points have been identified, as well as the common understanding that trade liberalization by lowering countries' tariffs will bring about benefits to themselves :i) Japan's excluding agriculture from the FTA will reduce the FTA's potential benefits of the trade partners of Japan, but Japan's loss would be limited ;ii) Larger negative trade diversion effects take place, if Japan, China and Korea forms an FTA, because of their common weakness of agriculture ; This will be overcome by expanding the FTA membership to ASEAN countries.iii) Japan's exempted items from the FTAs should be limited. Otherwise, the East Asian-wide FTA will bring about only a small benefit.The simulations implies, as policy implications, that Japan should expand the coverage of FTAs, including agriculture, that Japan should sign FTAs as rapidly as possible ; and that Japan should limit the exempted items of FTAs from the first place.The identified areas for the future study include : i) to develop dynamic specifications of the CGE models, and make possible the recursive dynamic simulation ; ii) to make possible to simulate the effects of the Rules of Origin as a major policy concerned area.