A Method of Line Characteristic Evaluation and Network Reorganization Planning of Bus Systems

由于机动化和人口减少，地方公交车的使用量正在迅速减少。由于许多公交线路出现赤字，地方政府试图通过公共补贴尽可能多地保留公交线路。然而，许多市政当局面临财政赤字，被迫重组当地公交路线。目前的补贴制度在城市成本分担方面也存在诸多问题。本文对地方公交线路重组进行了考察，并对公共补贴的方式进行了研究。然后，对熊本县北部地区进行公交乘坐情况调查，以了解熊本县公交使用的实际情况。本研究以熊本县为例，探讨公共汽车管制、公共补助制度的修正、地方政府的整合对其日常交通的影响。本研究以熊本县59个地方政府为对象，进行问卷调查。利用问卷调查数据，分析了城市日常交通结构调整的趋势，明确了影响城市日常交通结构调整的因素。社区公共汽车将成为未来的日常交通工具。然而，如果不考虑地域性，社区巴士可能会造成问题。然后发现问题，以便重新组织当地的日常交通。随着乘用车的普及和新交通系统的引入，全国各城市的公交吸引力越来越差。随着公共汽车服务的放松，进入和退出公共汽车服务变得容易。当公交公司退出无利可图的公交路线时，人们担心当地居民的生活路线会被破坏。因此，需要对公交服务进行特征评价。本文从生产效率和激发沿线潜在需求两个角度，对熊本市区现有公交线路进行了评估，并提出了合理的公交线网重组方法。成本效益分析在工程项目评价中占有重要地位。然而，估计运输项目的确切效益是困难的，因为估计需求和项目产生的总效益是复杂的。本研究的背景是建议将本地铁路升级为轻轨系统，并将其延伸至市中心。在本研究中，使用分解模式选择模型来估计在实施建议的情况下汽车和公共交通的需求。通过将需求分配到研究区域的道路和公共交通网络中来计算效益。最后进行了成本效益分析，并对该方案的有效性进行了评价。行为意向（BI）方法是一种新的需求预测技术。在该方法中，直接从目标人群中测量行为意愿，以想象新的交通环境中的实际行为。商业智能方法基于态度理论，不同于微观经济学中基于理性选择理论的效用函数模型。因此，不需要将影响交通行为的所有因素都具体化并转化为数量，从而纳入功能模型。本研究采用BI方法，对熊本- dentet铁路轻轨计划的需求进行预测。因此，在需求预测中考虑了轻轨的特定效应，与传统的交通预测方法四步法的结果进行比较，可以获得BI方法在新交通政策中的应用知识。少

The users of local bus are decreasing rapidly because of motorization and depopulation. Since many bus routes are deficit, local governments try to keep the bus routes by public subsidy as much as possible. However, many municipalities have a financial deficit and are pressed to reorganize the local bus route. The present subsidy system also has many problems about cost sharing among the municipalities. This paper examines reorganization of local bus route and studies what public subsidy should be. Then, the bus riding survey was performed on the northern area of Kumamoto prefecture in order to investigate the actual condition of bus utilization.This research describes the influences of deregulation of bus business, revision of public subsidy, and the consolidation of local governments on daily transportation in Kumamoto prefecture. In this research, a questionnaire for 59 local governments in Kumamoto prefecture was executed in order to survey these influence. The trend of a reorganiz … More ation of daily transportation was analyzed using the questionnaire data, and factors of the trend were made clear. Community bus tends to be adopted as a facility of future daily transportation. However, community bus may cause problems if locality is disregarded. Then the issues were found in order to reorganize daily transportation in local area.By the spread of passenger cars, and introduction of a new transportation system, the bus attraction gets worse in cities across the country. As deregulation of bus service, it is easy to enter or get out of bus service. When bus employer gets out of unprofitable bus route, there is fear that the life route for local resident is spoiled. So we need characteristic evaluation by bus service. In this paper, from the two view points of production efficiency and elicitation potential demand along the bus line, we assess existing bus line and propose rational method of reorganization on bus network on Kumamoto urban area.Cost benefit analysis is very important in project evaluation. However, estimating exact benefit of a transport project is difficult, because it is complex to estimate demand and total benefit generated from the project. The context of this study is the proposal upgrading of local railway to LRT system and its extension line to the downtown. In this study, disaggregate mode choice model is used to estimate car and mass transit demand in the case of implementing the proposal. Benefit is calculated by assigning the demand into road and mass transit network of the study area. With the result, cost benefit analysis is carried out and efficiency of this proposal is evaluated.Behavioral intention (BI) method is a new technology for demand forecasting. In this method, behavioral intention is directly measured from targeted people to imagine actual behavior in new traffic environment. BI method is based on the attitude theory, which is different from utility function models based on the reasoned choice theory in microeconomics. Therefore, all factors which affect traffic behavior do not need to be specified and converted into quantity to get included in function models. In this study, demand of Kumamoto-Dentetsu railway LRT plan is forecasted by using BI method. Thus, LRT specific effects are considered in demand forecasting, Comparing the result with that of four-Step method, which is a traditional method for traffic forecasting, knowledge on application of BI method to new traffic policy can be obtained. Less